Strong storms expected Monday afternoon across Rochester and the Finger Lakes

Weather Blog

ROCHESTER, NY (WROC) — A cold front will sweep through bringing heavy rain and storms. Here we will break down the timing and potential impacts.

SETUP: Significant levels of instability will be in place as we sit ahead of a potent cold front. This boundary will sweep eastward and tap into the excess moisture and instability to produce strong storms. Those storms may turn severe as the atmosphere remains sheared. That will help fuel rotation and keep storms stronger for a prolonged period of time.

TIMING:

Noon-2pm: Storms form in Western New York along a frontal boundary. They quickly build and move eastward, quickly picking up steam.

2pm-4pm: Storms strengthen to produce heavy rain and lightning. The boundary starts to move east through the Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes. Some of these storms may turn severe and the National Weather Service could issue severe thunderstorm warnings for these storms.

4pm-6pm: Wind gusts over 60 mph will be the number one threat as the storms pass by, potentially causing damage to trees and power lines. Isolated outages will be possible where some of the stronger storms end up passing through. Towering thunderstorms will also have the possibility to produce some hail for a brief period. Some ponding on roads and swelling waterways is expected. There is a chance we could even see a brief spinup tornado along the southern edge of the line.

6pm-8pm: Storms taper off as they move toward Syracuse. Expect cooler air to filter in behind the storm.

Overnight: A few scattered leftover rain showers pass through as temperatures drop into the 60s.

THREATS:

WIND: The number one threat will be damaging winds along the front edge of the storm. Wind gusts over 60 mph may knock down trees and power lines. The focus will be from the Southern Tier up through the Finger Lakes and over to Syracuse, but a strong storm will still be possible across Rochester and Monroe County. 

HAIL: Tall thunderstorms may have the capability to produce small hail. This can cause property damage and make for difficult driving conditions.

RAIN: Heavy rain will fall along the front and behind it, dramatically reducing visibility and making driving difficult. A quick downpour can create ponds on roads as well as flood local creeks and streams. The flooding threat will be low since these storms are forecast to move quickly, but heavy rain that may re-develop could cause issues. 

TORNADOES: It is very unlikely we get a tornado warning, but there may be some rotation within the storms that inspire the National Weather Service to issue a warning. The best chance for this will be across the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier. 

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