Still feeling like summer as we transition into Fall, but how long will the warmth last?

Weather Blog

ROCHESTER, N.Y. (WROC) — As we get through our last full week of summer, our weather seems to be on the same page as the calendar as far as temperatures go. We’ve got a forecast that is set to feel just like summer even through the Fall equinox next Wednesday, September 22nd.

This is our annual reminder that yes, it is perfectly normal to get temperatures that still feel like summer even though we’re heading into Fall astronomically. During the month of September, Rochester averages 7 80 degree days; the record being 21 days at 80° or above. We start to see those 80 degree days dwindle once we get into October, but it’s not impossible as we saw over the past couple of years when we broke the daily record with a high of 88° on October 1st back in 2019, and when we hit 80° towards the end of October back in 2020.

We’ve only hit 80° once this month and we’re already halfway through September. It looks like we’ll get a bit closer to that average by the time we get through next week as highs reach the low 80s through the weekend.

If you’re asking yourself, could this be our last stretch of true “summer warmth”? It’s still tough to say at this point, but it’s not completely out of the question with some of the latest numbers showing up on the long range models.

It’s more “fun” than anything to look at the latest model runs and immediately react to the numbers we see, but when we forecast temperatures that go over the 7-day mark we tend to take them more with a grain of salt as things are still apt to change. I will say that I’m definitely starting to see more signs of overnight lows in the 50s, and maybe even more 40s too as shown in the latest GFS model run as we get closer to October. Once we see overnight low temperatures drop into the 40s, the potential for frost goes up. Last year we had 10 days with overnight lows that were less than 50 degrees during the month of September, so those temperatures may not be too far off.

That’s also why our fall foliage was bursting with color by this time last year, and why this year we may be waiting a bit longer as temperatures have been too mild during the day and overnight.

More warmth for us!

The next 6-10 days will surely feel more like summer than fall especially across the Northeast U.S. Notice the opposite end of the temperature spectrum will be taking hold of the Pacific Northwest…

It’s that time of year where we see some of the larger temperature differences between the east and the west coast. While we’re still looking at weather warm enough for the beach or the pool here in Western New York, places like the Rocky Mountains have chances for snow in their forecast after the weekend.

The word snow now starting to show up more for places like the Northwest in states like Idaho, Montana  and Colorado, but we still have a ways to go before we start discussing snow in our forecast.

With some of the first snow of the season forecasted for the Rocky Mountains… when will it be our turn?

The first accumulating snow usually comes around the first week of November for Rochester, so we still have plenty of time before we start discussing that.

With all that in mind, I say let’s enjoy the summery warmth while we still have it, because before you know it it’ll be 30 degrees and we’ll all be wearing sweaters and wishing really hard for this kind of weather to return.

~Meteorologist Christine Gregory

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