ROCHESTER, N.Y. (WROC) — Could a “fake spring” be on the way next week? Signs remain pointed towards a significant “spring-like” warm up with Monday of next week being our last cold morning of our wintry weekend stretch.
This weekend a cold, arctic airmass will dip southward across New York State sending temperatures into the teens and 20s. Highs over the weekend will struggle to reach freezing with single digit wind chills at times. As a large ridge of high pressure builds from the west, the increasing pressure gradient between these two air masses will produce gusty winds and these bone-chilling wind chills in the process.
More on the forecast HERE
Monday & Beyond
Beginning on Monday, the ridge building in from the west will slide east into our region sending temperatures on a gradual climb into the 40s, then 50s, and I think it’s more than likely many of us reach into the 60s by the time we get to Wednesday. Strong warm air advection courtesy of steady southerly winds will no doubt do the trick, and may be a nice relief from the cold for the time being.
Remember the last time we hit the 60 degree mark in Rochester? It was actually a lot more recent than you’d think. The first half of our winter season was mild, but it was during the month of November on the 20th to be exact, when we last hit at least 60 degrees with a high of 64°. Definitely impressive for the end of November in Western New York.
For areas with a decent snowpack remaining, this will mean any snow on the ground will melt a good amount with such warm air temperatures in play. This could result in minor river flooding and possible ice jams for portions of the WNY area with this risk to be monitored the closer we get towards next week.
Now, before you get too excited about the warmer weather coming in, know that this is NOT a permanent switchover to spring. There’s still plenty of March left, and we know the month can come with many surprises here in the weather department.
Looking at long range height anomalies (which can give us a general idea at what types of weather will be moving in whether it be warmer or colder, more active or less active), after our warm ridge is pushed out by the end of next week, the week after may feature a resurgence of colder air and perhaps increased chances for both rain and snow. We’ll have to wait and see as long range predictions are highly changeable between now and the time it actually arrives. The atmosphere is very delicate and can be easily altered by one slight change in the current conditions, but that’s what makes predicting the weather so intriguing!
All in all, the brief warm up doesn’t mean winter is over, but it’s a sign that spring is lurking just around the corner. Just like most years, it needs a little bit of encouragement before it shows its face and stays for good. We’re just over two weeks away now from the spring equinox, so things will eventually start warming and staying warm in due time.