Rochester rain check: Will we see enough to break the all-time record for July?

Weather Blog

ROCHESTER, N.Y. (WROC) — Now that we’ve received way more rain than anyone wanted to see in one month, let’s take a quick rain check.

No, we’re not canceling any plans due to the rain this time, but let’s quite literally check up on where we stand with the rain and what that could mean for the record boards as we head into our last week or so of the month.

No rain checks here! Check out the latest on the local forecast.

As it stands now, our July 2021 is in the top 5 wettest on record for Rochester with a total of 7.52” of rain. This has us at a surplus of +5.25″ for the month.

Data courtesy: NOAA Regional Climate Center

Not only is Rochester at a surplus for the month, but every major city in New York State is too…

Here is where some of the major cities in the state stand with rainfall for the month of July:

Buffalo 6.99” +4.98”

Watertown 6.71” +4.80”

Binghamton 8.45” +6.02”

Syracuse 6.28” +3.75”

Albany 7.69” +4.78”

New York City 9.15″ +6.29″

Plus, up to this point our July surplus of rain has gotten rid of our annual deficit for the year. Since January 1st, Rochester has received 19.13″ of rain. This puts us at a surplus of just 0.47″ for the year. This certainly means we definitely do not “need” any extra rain for a little while. Here’s another crazy statistic:

Now to the fun stuff. With all this rain, this must mean we’re setting a record here right? As it stands now we’re in the top 5 wettest July’s on record, and we only need 2.18″ of rain to match the all time record of 9.7″ for the month set back in 1947!

The overall outlook for the rest of the month does look to give Rochester a very slight chance to at least get very close to doing just that with around an inch or so of rain expected, but some luck would need to play in whether or not we can get any good convective rain in storms in addition to that. The placement of the rain will be important too. If the rain we do get doesn’t fall right into the rain gauge at the airport where the official measurements are taken, then we’re out of luck.

Other models suggest similar rainfall amounts if not less, and the model run above is simply that; one, singular model run containing the potential rainfall for over a week’s worth of time. There is a lot that can change even over the next few days as new data comes in, so only time will tell whether or not this will be a July for the record books, or one where we’ll have to settle at somewhere in the top 5.

Check back at the end of the month to see whether or not we make number one!

~Meteorologist Christine Gregory

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