Nor’easter set to crank Wednesday into Thursday

Weather Blog

ROCHESTER, NY (WROC) – A major snowstorm is expected to dump over a foot of snow in regions across Eastern Pennsylvania through the Hudson Valley, New Jersey, New York City, and interior southern New England. Snowfall amounts will likely be manageable in Rochester with the Finger Lakes getting a plowable snowfall tonight and Thursday.

For a detailed look at the latest forecast as it changes, click HERE

As the storm system continues to move into Western New York tonight, a 3 to 5 inch fluffy snowfall is likely for the bulk of the Rochester metro by the close of Thursday morning. Below are our latest thoughts:

TONIGHT – Snow showers will continue to develop and fill in across WNY this evening as our Nor’easter continues to trek across the Appalachians. Accumulating snow will spread north from the Southern Tier up into the Finger Lakes by tonight with the very northern edge of the storm system set to graze Monroe County and the Lake Ontario Shoreline. Snow has already begun to accumulate on some grassy surfaces since temperatures are so cold, as the thermometer hovers in the middle 20s all night long. The core of the heaviest and steadiest snow will fall overnight into early Thursday morning. Visibility will be heavily reduced at times through the heaviest snow bands.

THURSDAY MORNING Expect areas of snow across the Finger Lakes and up toward Rochester. The further south you are, the more snow you can expect. South of Rt 5 & 20 closer to Ithaca down toward Dansville will be waking up with several inches on the ground, likely enough that would be worth the plow or shovel. We will continue to update you with the daily forecast here.

The NWS Buffalo office has Winter Weather Advisories issued for Wayne, Monroe, Wyoming, Genesee, Livingston, Ontario, and Yates Counties. The NWS Binghamton offices have Winter Storm Warnings across the southern Finger Lakes and the Southern Tier into Pennsylvania.

EXTRA “WEATHER TALK” NOTES

A deep bubble of high pressure is in place across the Northeast reaching over 1035mb, a classic placement of cold air for high-impact nor’easters. This cold air looks to dam up against the Blue Ridge Mountains and open the door for snowfall totals to climb at higher elevations through Maryland and Pennsylvania throughout the event.

The forecast models are in more of an agreement that a large area from Central Pennsylvania up through interior New England can expect heavy snowfall overnight into Thursday morning that will have major impacts on travel throughout the region. Expect flight delays and cancellations through this region with deteriorating road conditions through the major metropolitan areas such as Wilkes-Barre, Allentown, New York City, and up into Binghamton.

Locally, snow ratios will be important to consider. As air gets colder, less moisture may be available within the snowflake and that can lead to a more fluffy snow that ends up inflating snowfall totals. A fluffy few inches of snow could be possible north of the Thruway, but further south where it is not only warmer but has higher available moisture, a lower snow ratio is likely. That means a heavy, wet snow is possible that would create tough driving conditions as plows try to keep up. Plan for extra time during the Thursday morning drive as it will be a slower go wherever you are.

~WROC Weather Team

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