Fourth of July Forecast: How the Holiday weekend weather is shaping up

Weather Blog

ROCHESTER, N.Y. (WROC) — The trend for the Holiday weekend will be cooler and unsettled, but it looks like a pretty decent weekend overall; let’s discuss.

Discussion: As the front that brought us severe storms Wednesday continues to trek eastward, an upper-level low will be developing right over Western New York into Friday.

This means there will be plenty of clouds and rain around for the first half of the weekend. As the low pulls away on Sunday, drier air moves in, the sun will come out, and temperatures will go up.

If your weekend begins on Friday, this will be the coolest and wettest day we see over the next few.


Morning: You may be greeted with a few thundery downpours earlier on in the day. Temperatures start off in the lower 60s with stubborn clouds and rain.

Afternoon: Scattered showers will linger throughout the day with highs in the upper 60s. If we stay below 69°, it could be the coolest we’ve been since May. Winds will come from the north, which will keep things feeling cooler along Lake Ontario. Lower humidity will make it feel refreshing, but keep the umbrella handy as showers will be around throughout the day.

Evening: Skies quiet with a few lingering drops, and temperatures drop into the upper 50s and low 60s.

Our storm system will be pulling away at this point, but don’t expect much in the way of clearing as lingering moisture and cooler air overhead keeps things cloudy with isolated drops.


Morning: Expect a few light, but isolated showers to pass through with temperatures starting off in the upper 50s and low 60s.

Afternoon: Most of the day should be dry but cloudy. Highs will be slightly warmer in the low to mid 70s. 

Evening: A cool and quiet evening will follow with temperatures in the 60s.

Warmer, drier air moves in to end the Holiday weekend and just in time for the 4th. Have any plans to BBQ or go to the beach? This will be the best day for doing anything outdoors.


Morning: There may be a few clouds around but increasing sunshine will help temperatures warm into the afternoon.

Afternoon: Highs reach the upper 70s and low 80s with a mix of clouds and sun.

Evening: Temperatures remain comfortable in the 60s as humidity levels remain low with quiet, partly cloudy skies. 

Sneak Peak at Next Week:

Temperatures will climb back closer to more seasonable levels in the 80s for Monday ahead of a warm front. This will send highs shooting back up into the upper 80s on Tuesday with chances for showers and storms.

The initial onset of this warm front looks to be lacking moisture, but should provide enough lift for us to keep our eyes on Tuesday for the potential for strong storms after a cold front moves through behind this system.

Extended look at your local forecast HERE.

Looking for fun things to do this weekend?

~Meteorologist Christine Gregory

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