‘Cold blast’ headed toward Rochester as we finish July

Weather Blog

ROCHESTER, N.Y. (WROC) — The coldest air of the entire month is headed toward Western New York, the Finger Lakes, and all across the Northeast heading into the end of the month and beginning of August.

Cold is a relative term as temperatures will still be well above freezing, but Rochester averages some of the warmest days of the year in late July.

This year will not be the case as forecast lows are expected to be in the 50s with afternoon highs just in the low 70s. Friday temperatures may not even escape the 60s.

Average highs this time of year for Rochester are in the lower 80s with average lows in the 60s.

Over the next several days we’ll find this stretch of cooler than average air make things feel more like Fall at times than Summer.

This is all happening because of a major dip in the jet stream aloft, allowing for cooler Canadian air to pour over the region. You don’t have to go far to find the heat as an indirect relation can be found with the brutal heatwave out west. As warmer temperatures surge northward across the upper Midwest, that warmth pushes out some cold that spills into our region.

Not only does this cooler air mean a different feel stepping outside, but the air coming in will also be cold enough to spark lake enhanced rain showers over lake Ontario. Yes, lake effect can happen even when it’s not winter. All you need is the right wind direction and cold enough air aloft to create the phenomenon.

Lake Ontario water temperatures are in the 70s, and the incoming air located about a mile above the surface will be in the 40s, which is plenty of difference in temperatures to get clouds and lake rain going. This is what we’ll see as we head into our Friday morning and afternoon.

With this time of year usually being the hottest that Western New York gets all year this may come either as welcomed, or more of a bummer to summer lovers as the warm air always seems to be all too fleeting heading into August.

This trough of cold air will amplify and remain in place across the Northeast through the weekend, which will bring more of an unsettled start to the new week starting with another round of rain and showers Sunday. Temperatures are expected to moderate a bit towards later next week along with increasing sunshine.

~Meteorologists James Gilbert and Christine Gregory

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