ROCHESTER, N.Y. (WROC) — “What goes up must come down.” It’s a familiar phrase that has already started to apply to our weather here in Western New York over the past several days. Our big stretch of heat and humidity we saw last week sent our temperatures well into the 80s, and we even hit 90° for the first time this season!
Our big ridge of high pressure bringing us all the warm and dry stuff last week has moved on. Now, we’re still feeling the summer-like warmth, but it’s much closer to where we should be this time of year. Plus, the humidity is low and it feels good.
Temperatures into next week for Rochester will only continue to hover in the upper 70s and low 80s through the weekend before we take a slight dip in temperatures that are slightly cooler than average. After Monday of next week, highs will fall closer to the lower 70s, which will make things feel a bit more like May than mid June around here. We’ll call it a much more refreshing feel that could serve as a nice break from the all the heat.
We seem to be getting the luck of the draw here at least for now as comfortable warmth continues for us. While even bigger warmth builds over the next few days out west, more unsettled weather involving flash flooding is occurring across the Mid-Atlantic and places such as Maryland, the Virginias, and North Carolina. They are currently seeing more than enough rainfall for one sitting as showers and storms blossom to our south and east.
The pattern going forward involves a lot of big heat across the U.S. with potential records to be broken for places like Colorado, the Dakotas, Nebraska, Arizona, and New Mexico. Temperatures by Monday of next week will surge well into the 90s and even 100s for places like Albuquerque and Las Vegas. This will leave our tiny corner of the Northeast in the 60s and 70s for a brief period.
As for us, a series of upper level disturbances will pass through the region as the jet stream takes a dip south this weekend and beyond. This will bring cooler air and temperatures in the lower 70s for the start of next week, and extremely hot and dry conditions across the western U.S. This is a common blocking pattern that unfolds across our part of the world. While one end is cool, the other end is likely warmer, and sometimes it can be on the extreme side.
The excessive heat that’s about to unfold out west will not bode well for the already extremely dry conditions present. As of this writing, over 60% of the west is experiencing extreme drought conditions. There are many factors that go into this that include snowmelt, incoming rain, and overall climate patterns.
As for Western New York, our moderate dry spell has lessened into just abnormally dry conditions across the outer edges of the region. This may be due to the lack of rain falling across the immediate lakeshore as most of the shower and storm activity recently has resulted off of lake breeze boundaries south and east of the lakes.
U.S. Drought Monitor
How will our shower chances unfold as cooler air aloft moves into Rochester? Get all the details on your local forecast, click HERE.
~Meteorologist Christine Gregory