A soaker to end September, so what’s next for October?

Weather Blog

Before yesterday, the month of September had only seen a total of 0.66″ of rainfall recorded at the Rochester airport. Yesterday, just two days before the month wraps up we received 0.78″ of rain, and well more than an inch and counting already by the final day today. To summarize, in a matter of just 48 hours we received more rain than we received for almost the entire month of September prior to yesterday. Talk about last second relief!

MORE RAIN STATS: The last time Rochester saw more than a half inch of rain in a day was over a month ago on August 25th, and the last time we saw an inch or more of rain in a day was on August 3rd.

Was this rain enough to relieve areas of a much needed watering? It was for some. Take a look at the photo below taken by News 8’s John Kucko showing the water flowing once again over a dry Taughannock Falls in Trumansburg, NY.

Photo courtesy: John Kucko

Overall the month of September saw its ups and downs with temperatures starting out in the 70s and 80s as we still held onto summer warmth. Then by the middle of September we caught our first stretch of “fall-like” weather before fall even officially started. Then as soon just as fast as we cooled down we warmed right back up again to feeling like we were back in middle of July. Now we’re here; cold and rainy, and just in the nick of time for October.

It was a bit of a roller coaster ride for temperatures in September, but the main headline was the lack of rain we received throughout much of the month.

The bottom line here is that we spent nearly the entirety of September seeing a deficit of rain for the month before getting a much needed soaking to wrap things up, and while we ended the month cool and rainy, it looks like we could be starting off October in a similar fashion. Here’s the latest forecast trend of temperatures into next week.

Heading into this weekend will no doubt be a change from how last weekend felt as temperatures may not even escape the 50s on Saturday. We’re also in the middle of an incoming trough of low pressure that seems to be setting the stage for our “permanent” shift towards fall as we continue to see lake enhanced rain showers fill in across the region.

This trend in temperatures coincides with the current 6-10 temperature outlook according to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) with good indications we’ll see below average temperatures for this period. Note: The average high temperature is around the low 60s.

Even though October may be starting off cool and wet, there is some indication that heading deeper into the month may feature some “warmth” and dry conditions. The CPC outlook for the next 8 to 14 days does show that temperatures have a decent chance at being above average during this period. Keep in mind that even though this graphic shows good odds of “warmer than average temperatures,” it still may mean that we only see high temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s. It would still be nonetheless, “mild” for this time of year.

Now that we’ve looked at the short term, here’s the 1 month outlook valid for the whole month of October from the CPC:

Photo courtesy: pivotal weather

The overall trend seems to be pointing in a milder and possible drier outcome for the month of October. Although it’s still entirely possible for things to change as we approach the time of year where lake effect and snow can become a part of the conversation.

Did you know? The average temperature for October is roughly 50.6℉ according to data from the National Weather Service. That’s an average of both highs and lows.

Before we get wrapped up in this “mild and dry” outlook to October, it’s a good idea to note the following too…

October is known for its firsts in the cold department. What do I mean by that? October is sort of like the gateway to winter where we start to see our precipitation change from pure rain, to snow making its first appearances.

The average first freeze here in Rochester happens around mid October, and we’ve already gotten close to that on September 21st where we reached a low of 35℉ with parts around Rochester getting even closer to freezing if not meeting it. The first flakes typically fly on average by about October 23rd, and the first measurable snow happens in roughly 5 weeks form now. So yeah, it’s almost time.

The earliest stat in the books for October would be the earliest ever first measurable snow on record to happen by October 9th in 1925. If we were to match or beat that record, we would have to see our first flakes fly pretty quickly, and by the looks of it we’ll probably hold off just a bit longer to see snow fly through western New York skies.

~Meteorologist Christine Gregory

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