A cold front is approaching from the west that will bring the threat for rain and storms this afternoon. A lake breeze is slowly developing that will be the focal point for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. A few of those storms could be strong as there should be plenty of instability and moisture with which to work.
Temperatures will vary greatly today with those in the Finger Lakes getting to the upper 80s and those along Lake Ontario into the upper 70s. Make sure to keep your eye to the sky and listen for thunder as the storms develop. If thunder roars, head indoors. The number one threat from these storms will be damaging wind gusts over 50 mph along an outflow boundary from the storms.
The cold front sweeps through around and after dinnertime. If the atmosphere has enough time to reload here, it could produce a few strong to severe storms again for some.
Best chance here will be in the Finger Lakes. This front will bring in a significant cold blast as temperatures fall down to the 50s to start Thursday. Lingering moisture from the front will keep clouds around through most of the day and an isolated shower will be possible by the afternoon.
Skies clear out Friday and it should be a nice looking day, although temperatures will not feel how they should in early June. The morning will start around 50° with afternoon temperatures struggling to get to 70°. High pressure can be to thank for this dry stretch that will last through Saturday.
Whether it be the Canal Days, Greek Festival, the Genesee Air Show, or other activities, it should be a great start to the weekend. A warm front will start to nose in Saturday night into Sunday and this raises questions about the chances for a few showers to finish the weekend. We’ll need to get a bit closer to get a definitive answer. We dry out Monday before another shot at rain by the middle of next week.