High humidity and temperatures over 80° for the first time in over a week makes for a steamy afternoon. Dew points are hovering around 70° and that is priming the atmosphere for storms. A warm front crosses the region and puts us in an air mass conducive to stronger storms as instability levels increase significantly, to a level rare for western New York and the Finger Lakes.
The biggest threat will be strong winds within severe storms. That could knock out weaker trees and maybe even a few power lines, leading to isolated outages. Make sure to stay weather aware and keep your eye to the sky this afternoon. Storms could fire as early as noon and will continue off and on through the evening. Since we could see rounds of storms, there will be a threat for flash flooding in spots that get heavier rain. Afternoon highs will climb into the middle 80s with heat index briefly near 90°. There will be some dry time in between passing storms.
The storm threat diminishes after midnight as the amount of lift weakens significantly. A cold front will push away some of the moisture and warmth by Wednesday morning. That front will briefly sit overhead and bring a shower or storm threat, but we do not expect any severe weather. Temperatures drop a bit from Tuesday and finish around 80°.
Thursday will bring a break from shower and storm activity as high pressure slides in from the south. That comes with another burst of warmth as temperatures are expected to get back into the middle 80s. Expect partly cloudy skies with maybe a rogue afternoon shower. Most, if not all will remain dry.
A frontal boundary ahead of an advancing trough in the jet stream will drop into New York State Friday. This brings back a threat for showers and thunderstorms, again which could pack a punch depending on when they arrive. Expect another warm and muggy day with highs in the upper 80s. This front lingers to the south going into Saturday which will help drop temperatures but keep rain chances around. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible Saturday with highs in the low 80s. Skies should clear out Sunday with emerging sunshine. Besides an isolated shower or two, the second half of the weekend should be dry. This dry trend may last into early next week.