Temperatures make a run at 80 this Friday: How unusual is this?

Weather Blog

ROCHESTER, NY (WROC) – This Friday, October 23rd we’re taking a brief trip back to summertime as temperatures make a run near 80 degrees. We’ll be right in the midst of the warm sector of a frontal system that will leave us with a ton of warmth before a cold front sweeps through the next day, knocking us back to reality.

From a climate perspective, seeing this type of warmth this time of year isn’t all that unusual, but it’s a decent headline when we’ve been spending the past several days locked in the 50s and 60s. Plus, the fact that we’ll be the one area in the whole country seeing the most “above normal” temperatures that day makes things a bit more interesting and exciting.

For more reference, the last time we saw warmth similar to or higher than this was towards the end of September this year where we saw highs reach the upper 70s, and once more on October 10th when temperatures reached a high of 76℉ here in Rochester. It’s been 11 days since then. Again, not super unusual.

This model in particular is showing a high of 79℉ for the city of Rochester with mid to upper 70s elsewhere. Our forecast high is settled at 78℉, but that doesn’t mean we can’t get any warmer than that. Whether it’s 78℉ or 80℉, it sure is going to feel like a hot summer day anyway.

Note: The average high temperature right now is in the upper 50s.

So not only will we be anomalously warm for this time of year this Friday, but we could be tying the record high of 79℉ for the date if temperatures cooperate. This record has been set twice in history; the most recent time being in 1975. It will be a very close call to see if we match, and it’s not going to be entirely impossible to do.

Statistics and Numbers

For those interested in the numbers of the operation, here are some interesting statistics about the climatology of seeing 80s this time of year.

When is the latest date on record we’ve seen 80 degrees?

The latest on record that Rochester saw a high of 80℉ or higher within the calendar year was on November 2nd, 1933 where we hit 80 degrees exactly.

Other stats:

Last year in 2019, the latest day we hit 80℉ was on October 1st, and during that same year the first time we hit 80℉ was April 30th.

The top 3 latest times we’ve been 80 or more degrees were the following dates:

1. November 2nd, 1933

2. November 1st, 1950

3. October 31st, 1971

The last time Rochester saw 80 degrees on or after October 23rd was in 2014.

On average, the last day to see 80 degree temperatures for Rochester is October 2nd, according to data from the National Weather Service.

What comes next?

Here is the probability of seeing below average temperatures within the next 8-10 days. This matches the temperature trend models have where we enter a cooler pattern after heating up this Friday.

Data courtesy: Pivotal Weather

But then there’s this… the 1 month temperature probability outlook showing a decent chance at seeing above normal temperatures. Keep in mind the average high temperature right now is in the upper 50s, and will only decrease as we go about the next few weeks. That means we still could be cooling down, but temperatures relative to the average will likely be relatively above normal.

Data courtesy: Pivotal Weather

Check out the latest forecast for Rochester HERE.

Enjoy the short escape to summer while it lasts, because it very well looks like this will be the last time we see temperatures get even close to this as we approach the end of October… for real this time.

~Meteorologist Christine Gregory

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