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How Isaias will impact Rochester this week

Weather Blog

ROCHESTER, N.Y. (WROC) — TUESDAY UPDATE: Locally, there have been just a few downpours with some slow moving thunderstorms around Rochester. A different story is being played out just a few miles east of here. Flash flooding, damaging wind gusts, storm surge, and even tornadoes have been reported all along the path of Isaias as it remains a strong storm that is moving through the highly populated regions of the Northeast. Many areas have seen over a foot of rain as the storm system continues to move toward Maine. According to the NHC Isaias will continue to bring tropical storm force winds to Vermont and New Hampshire Tuesday night and early Wednesday before it quickly exits the region.

SUNDAY UPDATE:At one point, Tropical Cyclone Isaias (EE-SAH-EE-AHS) was a category one hurricane. Since then, it has weakened a bit and as of Sunday evening it sits at a strong tropical storm just off the coast of Florida. Expect it to slowly scrape along the coast of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina Monday and early Tuesday.

Many of these regions will have to deal with storm surge that pushes an extra 2-4 feet of water inland. Heavy rainfall means a flash flood concern for many low-lying areas in the path of the storm. Some of the heaviest rains will fall across the Mid Atlantic through New Jersey and Southern New York by the middle of the week.

Rain forecast as of Sunday evening from the National Hurricane Center. Latest forecast update here.

As many keep their eye on the tropics, meteorologists in the Northeast are dealing with another system. A deep long wave trough is extending from Michigan and Canada down to Louisiana bringing showers and thunderstorms all along the Appalachian mountains and into the Adirondacks. This trough and associated jet stream has been a “moisture train” that has brought moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into Western New York and allowed the dew points to climb into very uncomfortable levels.

Tropical Cyclones rotate counter-clockwise in the northern hemisphere. As Isaias rides along the coastline, on the northern edge of the storm there will be an influx of Atlantic moisture with an east wind. This will help add moisture into Western New York (even more on top of the upper-level jet already in place).

Rain is expected Tuesday and while this may not directly be from Isaias, it will be contributing to the ingredients necessary for rain. It will likely play a part in how muggy it feels over the next few days. The good news is that once Isaias moves out, it will allow for the humidity levels to drop and open the door for a much more comfortable stretch heading into the second half of the week.

-Meteorologist James Gilbert

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