There is a lot going on in the forecast this upcoming week across the Continental United States. We’ve got massive, record breaking heat and fire weather out west that has already brought destructive wildfires to parts of California…
…and an incoming dynamic weather pattern that will ultimately bring summer weather one day and winter the next to places in Colorado and Wyoming. Meanwhile, here in the Northeast, we will be dealing with our own variance in weather, but not nearly as wacky as out west. Let’s break it down:
A highly amplified pattern will exist over the U.S., bringing a wide range of weather across the country over the next few days.
A deepening trough will push southward over the Rocky Mountains this Monday into Tuesday allowing a warming ridge to build on both sides of the trough. For perspective, troughs typically give cooler and wetter weather while ridges provide drier and warmer weather.
This setup will allow heat to build over areas within the ridge such as California, the southeast U.S., and us here in the northeast while the trough moving over the Rockies will bring a surge of cold air to places along and just east of the Rockies. What’s interesting about this situation is the stark contrast in weather some spots along the Rockies are about to receive. Check out this line from the Denver forecast discussion below:
“…HEAT AND HIGH FIRE WEATHER DANGER TO BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY
WINTRY WEATHER AND POSSIBLE RECORD COLD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY…”
On Monday, Denver, Colorado will be going from fire weather and blazing heat to snow and record cold in a matter of hours. Talk about wacky weather!
While this trough continues to “dig” through portions of the west a “cut-off” low will form and eventually transport eastward towards the Great Lakes by the end of next week giving us some unsettled weather. Before that though, our forecast here in Rochester over the next several days will be dependent on the placement of a front that will become stationary Monday into Tuesday giving us our own brief taste of summer heat, and a much more seasonable cool down next week.
A warm front advancing into our region into Monday will bring us chances for a few scattered showers earlier in the day, and a few stronger showers and possible storms later that evening ahead of a prefrontal trough moving in. This frontal boundary will eventually become stationary and park itself right over Rochester, which will drastically affect how warm or cool we get on Tuesday.
Our high temperature on that day will heavily depend on the placement of this stark frontal boundary that will push eastward on Monday, and then retreat back west on Tuesday. Here are the differences in model outputs between the Euro and GFS models below:
These are the most recent model outputs for high and low temperatures over the next 10+ days, and if you look at Tuesday you can still see the slight disagreement the two models have. The GFS has us much cooler at 72℉, and the Euro is trending warmer with a high of 78℉, which is much different than the 86° temperature it had in just the previous run. This just goes to show how volatile the forecast can be with a highly influencing front nearby.
So far the trend has been keeping locations around and south of Rochester the warmest, while the lakeside may see quite a bit of difference in temperature that day keeping on the cooler side of things. After this front moves away we’ll see our own surge in heat into Wednesday with highs close to 90!
For a look at the latest forecast breakdown for Rochester, click HERE.
~Meteorologist Christine Gregory