Feldman’s Favorites: Wild Card Round

Feldman's Favorites

AJ heads into the playoffs well above .500 and has three bets for the Bills game

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) leaps over New England Patriots free safety Devin McCourty (32) on a run during the first half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 26, 2021, in Foxborough, Mass. (AP Photo/Winslow Townson)

ROCHESTER, N.Y. (WROC) — I hope your first week of mobile sports betting in New York was just as successful as mine.

Last week was my third straight winning week, posting a 3-2 record. Stefon Diggs covered my bet nearly at halftime and the Steelers and Jake Fromm both played to my expectations.

It’s also time that we tally up my preseason bets! While it wasn’t perfect like in 2020, I went 6-5-1 on my win total and division winner bets.

I cashed in on the Titans and Bucs being good and the Panthers, Jaguars, and Lions being bad. However, I did not see the resurgence by the Bengals and Raiders. The Chargers and WFT also didn’t perform up to my expectations.

All of that combined gives me a 54-48-3 record. Regular season performance is nice, but the playoffs are where champions are made.

As always, these lines are the consensus lines on the Action Network at the time of this article’s publication.

Bills -4 vs. Patriots

I gotta say, I’m not SUPER pumped about making this bet. I don’t have a super-strong feel on this game. It’s against Bill Belichick in the playoffs. The weather is going to be frigid. Josh Allen hasn’t played 100% lights-out in a playoff game just yet.

But at the end of the day, I’m taking Allen against Mac Jones.

The Patriots have faltered a bit down the stretch, going 1-3 over the last four weeks. All of those three losses were as a favorite or a very short underdog. The win was against the Jaguars.

I could see this playing out very similarly to the game in Foxborough, a close battle where the Bills get a late score to put this one to bed. Bills 23, Patriots 14

Josh Allen OVER 7.5 rushing attempts

On the contrary, I am SUPER pumped about making this bet.

The Bills run Allen when it matters most. Since the start of October, the Bills have been favorites of less than a touchdown or underdogs in six games. He’s ran the ball at least eight times in five of those six games.

He had 12 attempts in Foxborough. He had 12 against the Bucs. He had 11 against the Chiefs. He had 9 against Tennessee. And for good measure, when they were in a funk against the Falcons they turned to him to run the ball 15 times.

I think this is a steal of a line. You can get it at -140 on DraftKings.

Damien Harris any time TD scorer (+120)

In two games against the Bills this year, he has four rushing touchdowns. In his last 11 games, he’s scored in 10 games and has 14 total touchdowns.

In their last nine games, the Bills have given up 13 touchdowns to opposing running backs. The only games when an RB didn’t score a touchdown was last week against the hapless Jets and in Week 12 when the Saints featured Tony Jones in the backfield and only scores six points.

Buccaneers (-8.5) vs. Eagles

The Eagles somehow snuck their way into the postseason and now we get to bet against them.

You’ve probably heard this before, but the Eagles did not beat a single playoff team this season. Their only win against a team with a winning record was at home against Trevor Siemian and the Saints.

The Buccaneers are third in Football Outsiders DVOA and the Eagles are 15th. It’s also Tom Brady at home in the playoffs, so that’s a good thing to bet on as well.

49ers (+3) at Cowboys

You also have probably heard that underdogs are 15-3 against the spread in the wild card round over the last four years. Guess we should take an underdog, huh?

The 49ers are playing their best football of the season, winning seven of their last nine days to make the playoffs. They’re currently ranked 5th in Weighted DVOA.

Unfortunately for San Fan, they’re going up against the number one team in DVOA. But I think that number is a little bit deceiving.

I’m not super excited about many of their wins this season. The only playoff teams that they beat were the Eagles twice, once when they were resting players, and the Patriots in overtime. They have won five of their last six, so they’re not playing BAD by any stretch of the imagination. But I’ll take a few points against Mike McCarthy in the playoffs. You can also find this number at +3.5 right now on DraftKings.

Steelers at Chiefs Under 46.5

You like trends? I’ve got another one for you. Of the last 30 wild card games with a total of 44 or higher, the under is 21-8-1. Guess we should take an under, huh?

I just have a hunch that this is going to be a low-scoring, ugly game. Even if it’s not, there’s still a chance the under cashes. When the Chiefs blew out the Steelers three weeks ago, they won 36-10. We’ll take that.

Pittsburgh is going to muck this game up as much as possible. I could see it being 17-9 heading into the fourth quarter before the Chiefs finally pull away.

Week 18: 3-2

2021-22 Season: 54-48-3

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