ROCHESTER, N.Y. (WROC) — It’s the game we’ve all been waiting for. The Chiefs and the Bills. The 13 Seconds revenge game. It’s time for the Bills to rewrite their wrongs for good until they actually have to rewrite their wrongs by doing it in the playoffs.
It’s also a good time for me to get out of my slump. We got a little unlucky last week as Teddy Bridgewater got knocked out of the game and the Lions somehow went from the top-scoring offense in the league to getting shutout. Still, 2-4 isn’t the worst week in the world, right?
We’re four games below .500 on the year. Let’s see if we can make a dent in that hole.
Bills -2.5 at Chiefs, Bills 3rd Quarter ML (-114)
When the Bills have been clicking this year, there’s been no team in their atmosphere. When they haven’t been clicking, they’ve still been competitive against some pretty darn good teams. I think they’ll click.
They’re finally getting healthy, with Christian Benford, Jordan Poyer, Dawson Knox, and Tremaine Edmunds among the many players who are healthier than they’ve been in weeks.
There’s no Tyreek Hill to crush the Bills like he’s done in the past. Leslie Frazier will be able to come up with a way to slow down Travis Kelce like he did Mark Andrews a few weeks ago.
The Chiefs are just 2-3 against the spread this year and all of the sharps love the Bills this week.
I’m also taking the Bills in the third quarter. They’ve allowed a grand total of zero points in the third quarter this year. Granted, the Chiefs lead the league in third-quarter scoring this year, but the Bills are second. I’ll take Buffalo’s strength over the Chiefs’.
Josh Allen over 7.5 rushing attempts
Bills in a close game, take Allen’s rushing props. Last year he had 11 rushing attempts in each of their matchups against the Chiefs. He’s hit this total in every close game this year. Last year against playoff teams he had 9.5 rushing attempts, against non-playoff teams it was 5.7. I’m fine if you want to take his rushing yards if that’s the way you want to play it.
Jets team total over 17.5 at Packers, Ravens team total over 25.5 at Giants
This trend comes from our pal Brandon Anderson over at the Action Network. When a team returning from London plays the next week without a bye, the other team has gone over their team total six out of seven times. Makes sense right? Defenses get tired, y’all. Plus, I like both of these offenses to reach these totals, either way.
Seahawks +2.5 vs. Cardinals
The sports gods can’t possibly kick Seattle while they’re down after yesterday’s Mariners heartbreak.
Geno Smith is somehow the leader of the number one offense in the league based on DVOA. We’re also going back to the well with the trends even though they failed me last week. Pete Carroll is 44-28-2 ATS as an underdog and Geno Smith is 10-3 ATS in his last 12 starts. Plus, something just stinks in Arizona.
Saints +3 vs. Bengals
The Bengals haven’t shown much this year, with an atrocious loss to the Steelers, losses to the Ravens and Cowboys, and wins over the Tua-less Dolphins and Jets. They’ve lost their fastball as they’re just 25th in the league in offensive DVOA and have been held under 21 points in three games so far this year.
Alvin Kamara returned to the lineup last week and looked good as the Saints covered their second straight game. We’ve also got an Andy Dalton revenge game!
Week 5: 2-4
2022 Season: 13-17-2