ROCHESTER, N.Y. (WROC) — Well, it wouldn’t last forever. My streak of two straight weeks with just one loss was snapped. On the bright side? Our winning streak continues!
Last week was a 3-2 showing as Taylor Heinicke, Stefon Diggs, and Ben Roethlisberger performed just how I thought they would.
I’ve now won two-thirds of my games so far this season. Some people would describe that as unsustainable, but those people would be wrong.
It’s time for another week of winners including my pick for the biggest Bills game of the season. As always, the lines are courtesy of the Action Network at the time of publication of this article.
Chiefs -2.5 vs. Bills
I’m sorry Bills fans, I just can’t pick Patrick Mahomes to lose to the Bills until I’ve seen it.
Yes, the Bills have played and looked better than the Chiefs so far this season. Yes, the Chiefs are 2-12-1 against the spread on a stretch that dates back to last year.
But I’m just not picking Patrick Mahomes to lose to the Bills until I’ve seen it.
In the first game of the regular season, the Bills chose to let the Chiefs basically run all over them and they lose 26-17. In the AFC Championship Game, they played them straight-up and had absolutely no answer for Travis Kelceand Patrick Mahomes.
Even if Matt Milano plays, he won’t be at 100%. That’ll have a big impact, especially trying to cover Kelce over the middle. Mahomes is obviously on another stratosphere compared to the QB’s they’ve faced so far this season and that adjustment might take some time to get used to. You’d also like to see the Bills look better in the red zone heading into their biggest game of the season. Chiefs 30, Bills 27
Titans -4.5 at Jaguars
Things are an absolute mess in Jacksonville, I don’t need to go into detail on that situation.
The Titans look like they’ll get back AJ Brown from injury and will bounce back from an ugly game against the Jets where they were short their top-two wide receivers. Even in the loss, they had more first downs (30 to 16) and yards (430 to 355). The game wasn’t as bad as the score indicated and I have faith the Titans will bounce back.
Packers -3 at Bengals
I had to do a double-take when I saw this line. Yeah, the Bengals are 3-1, but what win of theirs am I getting excited about?
A home win overtime win against the Vikings when Dalvin Cook fumbled the game away in Cincy territory to lose the game?
A win over the Steelers, which might be one of the worst teams in the league this year?
A three-point win home win against the Jaguars, which needs no further explaining.
I will gladly take Aaron Rodgers only laying a field goal against Joe Burrow.
Jets vs. Falcons (in London) Under 45.5
The over/under for games in London are a perfectly even 14-14 all-time, but over the last 10 games, the under is 7-3.
The trend is on our side and so is the fact that Calvin Ridley is not making the trip across the pond. That leaves the weapons left for the Falcons… less than desirable. I don’t think we’re expecting Cordarrelle Patterson to score three touchdowns every week.
Let us not forget that prior to last week’s win against the Titans, the Jets scored a grand total of just 20 points in three games. The Falcons for the year are averaging less than 20 points a game.
The Falcons are 31st in offensive DVOA and the Jets are 32nd. There are 32 teams in the league. Even if the defenses are bad, 24-21 would be a high-scoring affair for this one.
Giants at Cowboys Over 52
In my first writeup of the season, I waxed poetically about money the over was in games that Dak Prescott played last season.
I shouldn’t have shied away from that strategy as Cowboys’ overs are 3-1 so far this season. The Giants will do their part as well, going 2-2 in overs so far.
The Cowboys’ offense has looked lethal so far this season and Saquon Barkley showed enough last week to indicate he might be finally getting healthy. Let’s expect some points in America’s Game of the Week.
Week 4: 3-2
2021 Record: 14-7