ROCHESTER, N.Y (WROC) — Week 3’s column was one that Thanos would have been proud of. Six picks, perfectly balanced, as all things should be.
And I’m not talking about a 3-3 week. I’m talking about a cool 2-2-2.
That’s right, my record last week looked more like the start of a close pickleball game (this joke is only for me).
Not really much to discuss. The wins were wins, the losses were losses, and honestly, the pushes deserved to be pushes. Maybe if the Dolphins game wasn’t played on the sun the over would have hit, but that’s life.
Let’s try and get a winning week once again.
Josh Allen over 6.5 rushing attempts, Stefon Diggs over 83.5 receiving yards
I’m very conflicted as to how the game is going to go, so I’ll stick with the props. Until Allen breaks down, they’re going to keep running him in the close games. This number has hit in eight out of ten games where it’s close (two scores or less). You’re paying a decent amount of juice, though (-160).
With Gabriel Davis still hobbled with his ankle injury, I expect this to be another WR1 and WR2 game for Diggs. The Ravens have allowed over 280 yards to opposing WRs this season. That’s dead last, with the next closest at 222 yards. The Dolphins’ explosion inflates that number, but the Pats got 255 on them and the Jets got 215. That would still be the worst in the league.
Vikings -2.5 vs. Saints
This one’s the London game, so you get to start your day off with a win.
Favorites do well across the pond. In games not involving the Jaguars, favorites are 18-3-1 straight up and 15-7 against the spread. In the early kickoffs, they’re 9-0-1 straight up and 7-3 ATS. Although who knows if those trends hold under King Charles.
The Vikings are just the better team. The line is at -2.5 at about half of the books, make sure you take it before it gets to 3.
Cardinals +2 at Panthers
Honestly, this feels like such a sucker bet but a lot of the people that I follow are on it so we’ll go along for the ride.
Matt Rhule is 1-25 straight up when the opponent scores at least 17 points. He hasn’t covered as a favorite the last seven times.
Kliff Kingsbury is 19-9-2 against the spread as an underdog, including 6-0 straight up last year.
BetMGM is the only place you can find this line right now, it’s 1.5 elsewhere.
Raiders -2.5 vs. Broncos
The Raiders are going to be desperate at 0-3 with their season all but over if they don’t get a win. They haven’t played all that bad this season, losing two road games by a combined seven points and losing that crazy game to the Cardinals in overtime.
The Broncos have maxed out at 16 points so far this season, with their defense carrying them to a 2-1 record against Jimmy G, Davis Mills, and Geno Smith.
The Raiders have won their last four against the Broncos and will make it five on Sunday.
Bucs (-104 ML) vs. Chiefs
With Mike Evans back in the lineup, the Bucs will be in much better shape offensively.
Tom Brady is 7-2 against the spread and straight up after a loss with the Bucs. Over the last 20 years, he’s 10-0 straight up as an underdog after a loss.
Best line at publication is BetRivers, but check around.
Week 3: 2-2-2
2022 Season: 7-11-2