Feldman’s Favorites: Week 4

Feldman's Favorites

AJ's only lost one game each of the past two weeks and is looking to stay hot

MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA – SEPTEMBER 19: Stefon Diggs #14 of the Buffalo Bills waves to fans after defeating the Miami Dolphins 35-0 at Hard Rock Stadium on September 19, 2021 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

ROCHESTER, N.Y. (WROC) — One good week is lucky. Two good weeks is still probably lucky. Three good weeks? I mean, it’s still pretty lucky but that doesn’t mean I’m not going to shoot for it.

After a 5-1 record in Week Two, Feldman’s Favorites stayed red-hot with a 4-1 record. Our record this year is now 11-5. That puts our winning percentage at 69%. That’s a nice start if I’ve ever seen one.

Our only loss was not believing that the Bills would crush the Football Team. We’re 1-3 on our Bills Bets this year, but you should ignore that and focus on the 10-2 record of non-Bills picks.

As always, the lines are the consensus lines at the Action Network at the time of this article’s publication.

Stefon Diggs over 84.5 receiving yards

I want no part in figuring out if the Bills are going to beat the Texans by more than 17 points. Historically, they shouldn’t.

Underdogs of 17.5 points or more are 25-11 against the spread historically. They’ve only won three times, but beating another NFL team by a ton when you’re expected to is harder than you think.

I think the Bills will be able to do just about whatever they want on offense and I think they’ll want to get Stefon Diggs going.

Diggs hasn’t been bad by any stretch of the imagination, he’s just been pretty good. Heading into Chiefs week, I think he explodes for a big game against a secondary that just let DJ Moore rack up 128 receiving yards.

Plus, do you really see the Bills scoring 30+ in three straight weeks and Diggs not going off in any of them? I don’t. Bills 37, Texans 17

Packers (-6.5) vs. Steelers

I’m shocked they’re letting us get this line under a touchdown. We’ve got a really good team at home against what very well might be a really bad team.

The Steelers have just looked atrocious the last two weeks and embarrassed themselves at home last week against the Bengals.

The Packers just went into San Fran and knocked off one of the best teams in the NFC.

I have all the confidence in the world in Aaron Rodgers and absolutely none in Ben Roethlisberger right now.

Titans at Jets under 44.5

With AJ Brown and Julio Jones both out, expect a healthy dose of Derrick Henry on the ground. He’s going to run for about 300 yards, but that’ll take a lot of time off the clock and make this a quick game.

While atrocious at most things, the Jets are actually 13th in run-defense DVOA according to Football Outsiders. So maybe they can hold him to 250.

The Titans don’t have a great defense but it’s not as bad as the Jets’ offense is.

Teaser: Saints -1 vs. Giants (from -7), Buccaneers -1 at Patriots (from -7)

These Wong teasers have been absolutely money so far in this column so we’re going with another one. And by absolutely money, I mean relying on the longest field goal in NFL history to win last week.

This week, we get the Saints playing their first game of the year in New Orleans against a bad Giants team. We also get Brady getting a win against his former and significantly less talented team. I like those odds.

If you want to get frisky the Titans, Chiefs, and Pakcers are all juicy teams to tease from about a touchdown favorite to simply needing a win.

Washington -1.5 at Falcons

We won last week going with the Dolphins after an overreaction to a big Bills loss. We’ll do the same this week.

So far this year the Falcons have lost to the Eagles by 26, the Bucs by 23, and barely beat the Giants by a field goal.

Chase Young and the WFT defense have to get it going eventually, right?

Week 3 results: 4-1

2021 season: 11-5

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