ROCHESTER, N.Y. (WROC) — Is 2021 the year of the underdog in the NFL? It’s far too early to tell, but week one certainly was.
Underdogs went 12-4 against the spread, an NFL record for a season opener.
This was terrible news for a better who picks favorites probably a bit too much for his own good, as well as someone who made 4 of his 5 picks favorites in this column.
Luckily, we survived the blood bath with a 2-3 record. The Bills and Najee Harris let us down, as well as the epic backdoor cover from the Lions. That one is going to sting.
It’s time to build on that so-so start and get about .500. As always, the lines are the consensus lines at the Action Network at the time of publication.
Bills -3.5 at Dolphins
Week two lines are full of week one overreactions and this seems like a good example.
If the Steelers don’t block that punt and Tre White and Levi Wallace don’t get called for those penalties, what’s this line? -6?
It’s unfair to play the game of “what ifs” because the Bills did not look good in that game at all, but a few things break differently and we’re talking about a 1-0 football team. By all indications, the Bills are very eager to put that loss behind them and they face the right team to do so.
Sean McDermott is 7-1 against Miami. Josh Allen is 5-1 against the Dolphins and has 20 total touchdowns, 17 passing and three rushing, against the Dolphins. His 17 touchdowns are by far the most against any opponent— second place is seven.
The Bills’ offensive line was atrocious in week one, allowing 18 QB pressures on just one blitz. The Dolphins had a decent day pressuring Mac Jones but needed 21 blitzes to do so. If the Bills can pick up the pressure that should leave Miami’s secondary ripe for the attack. Bills 31, Dolphins 20
Teaser: Browns vs. Texans (-7 from -13), Packers vs. Lions (-5.5 from -11.5)
You’re getting two of the best teams in the league at home against two of the worst teams in the league and you only have to win by a touchdown.
This is the sucker teaser of the week but I expect big bounce-back performances from both the Brown and Packers to get this done.
Cowboys at Chargers Over 55
60. 71. 87. 69. 79.
Those are the point totals for the last five games that Dak Prescott has played in. If you don’t care to do the math, that’s over 73 points per game. If you don’t care to think critically on your own, all five of those numbers are larger than 55.
Week one’s game indicated that things would be no different than they were last year. The Cowboys’ offense is very good and their defense is not so very good.
Throw Justin Herbert into the mix and you’ve got a recipe for some points.
Titans +6.5 at Seahawks
This is a classic overreaction. The Titans will not be as bad as they looked in week one against the Cardinals.
Courtesy of The Action Network’s Raheem Palmer, since 2019 the Titans are 7-0 straight-up following a double-digit loss.
They’ll bounce back and at the very least keep it close.
Broncos -6 at Jaguars
Any time you can bet Teddy Covers against a team that got crushed by the Texans and had to tweet out a graphic talking about how their coach won’t leave them after one game, you have to do it.
Mr. Ted B Covers is 36-14 against the spread as a starter and a ridiculous 22-3 ATS on the road. Make it 23-3.
Patriots at Jets Under 43
The Jets and the Patriots have gone under four of their last five matchups. Neither team scored more than 16 points last week, both are starting rookie quarterbacks, feature defensive-minded coaches, and are stronger on the defensive side of the ball. Mekhi Becton’s injury doesn’t help, either.
2021 record: 2-3