Feldman’s Favorites: Week 17

Feldman's Favorites

AJ's ready to keep the good picks rolling as the playoffs approach

FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS – DECEMBER 26: Quarterback Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills looks to pass during the second quarter of the game against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium on December 26, 2021 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Omar Rawlings/Getty Images)

ROCHESTER, N.Y. (WROC) — The Bills are back on top of the AFC East and I am back above .500.

After a brief stop at .500 for the season, I’m back in the black after posting a 3-2 record. I completely misread the Bills/Patriots game, thinking that Buffalos’ banged-up offensive line would falter. Instead, they ushered in their best performance of the season and sunk both my New England and under bets.

Luckily, the rest of the slate was a perfect 3-0. Time to channel that into the penultimate week of the season.

As always, the lines posted are the consensus on the Action Network at the time of this article’s publication.

Falcons at Bills Over 44

I’m not saying that I think the Bills will suffer a letdown and lose after last week’s emotional win. I’m just not totally comfortable laying two touchdowns. A slow start or a backdoor cover seems well within the realm of possibility.

What doesn’t seem in the realm of possibility is the Falcons’ defense slowing down Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense. The o-line is playing well. All of Allen’s targets are back. Singletary is becoming a threat in the passing and running games.

On top of all of that, the Falcons have the 31st ranked defense by DVOA. The only team worse is the Jets, who Allen and company put up 45 points on last month.

Kyle Pitts and Cordarelle Patterson should be able to make enough plays to score on a Bills’ defense that allowed two touchdowns in their only two real drives of the second half last week.

Steelers (+3.5) vs. Browns

There are countless stats you can use to back Mike Tomlin as an underdog, I will choose to offer the fact that he’s 12-2-1 against the spread as a home underdog. Kevin Stefanski is also 1-9 against the spread in AFC North games.

Neither team has really offered up any reason to feel confident in them, so the fact that the Steelers are getting more than a field goal on Monday Night Football at home where they’re undefeated since 1991 seems a little preposterous.

It’s also Big Ben’s last rodeo at Heinz Field. Roethlisberger is a showman and loves a good storyline. The team will rise up around him to send him off the right way.

Cardinals (+6) at Cowboys

This seems like a classic buy low, sell high opportunity. The Cardinals are floundering and have lost three straight games. The Cowboys just scored 178 points on Sunday Night Football.

These are two teams heading in opposite directions but they should meet somewhere in the middle on Sunday. Kliff Kingsbury does his best work when the odds are stacked against him. He’s 12-3-2 as a road underdog. Last week, Dak Prescott had his bounceback game. This time, it’s Kyler Murray’s turn.

Chargers (-6.5) vs. Broncos

Even though Drew Lock didn’t play all that poorly last week, we’re going back to the well and betting against him on the road.

The Chargers were dealing with some COVID problems last week in their ugly loss to the Texans. They still have ten players on the list, but they did get Austin Ekeler back. In fact, the week off could help him as he is no longer on the injury report with the ankle injury that limited him against the Chiefs.

If the Chargers didn’t embarrass themselves against Houston, this line would certainly be seven or higher and probably closer to 10.

Bears (-6) vs. Giants

I can’t believe I’m taking the Bears giving almost a touchdown, but the Giants are just that bad these days.

In the four games since Daniel Jones left the starting lineup, the Giants have been underdogs by at least a touchdown. They’ve failed to cover each time, the closest was an eleven-point loss as seven-point favorites. In their last four games, they’ve been outscored 112-46.

I’m not going to convince you the Bears are good (they’re not). But in their last five games, they’ve won two, led at the half against the Packers, and lost to the Vikings by eight and the Cardinals by eleven. The two before that were losses to the Ravens and Steelers by a combined five points.

That’s a lot of words to tell you that the Bears are not absolute garbage. They can take care of the Giants, who are garbage.

Week 16: 3-2

2021 Season: 42-41-1

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