ROCHESTER, N.Y. (WROC) — We’re back, baby.
After weeks of mediocrity, I finally broke through with a tremendous week. 7-1.
For the second straight week, I went perfect in the Bills game with a clean 3-0 slate.
And we didn’t even need to rely on any fortunate beats (other than the Raiders winning in regulation on the Pats’ hilarious mistake).
Even with all that success, I’m still seven games under .500. Let’s do this again and get back to even.
As always, ignore the commercials and bet within your limits.
Bears +8.5 vs. Bills
The Bears may be on a seven-game losing streak, but five of their last six losses have been by single digits.
The Bills have won five straight, but only one has them by have been by more than eight points.
It’s going to be cold, it’s going to be windy, and the Bears’ rushing attack of Justin Fields and David Montgomery are going to be going up against a suspect Bills run defense that has two of its top defensive tackles questionable. The Bills will win, but the Bears will keep it close.
Justin Fields over 72.5 rushing yards
The Bills haven’t faced many mobile quarterbacks this year, but Lamar Jackson was able to rack up 73 yards against them in their only real test against one.
Fields needs 206 yards over his final three games to set the season-long QB rushing record. He’s already said it’s something he might as well go for, so you can expect them to keep using his legs.
Fields has rushed for 71 or more yards in seven of his last eight games.
Stefon Diggs over 63.5 receiving yards
Diggs is due. He racked up 60 yards last week against the Dolphins and 37 the week before. In his three-year tenure with the Bills, he’s never gone three straight games with 68 or fewer receiving yards.
The weather may be bad, but Allen can throw through the wind. Last week Devonte Smith and A.J. Brown both racked up over 125 receiving yards against the Bears.
Steelers -1.5 vs. Raiders
If you want a football answer, the Steelers are 5-2 with T.J. Watt in the lineup and they’re top 11 in DVOA both offensively and defensively over the past six weeks.
If you want the non-football answer, there’s no way the Steelers are losing just days after the passing of Franco Harris, at home on Christmas Eve, as they celebrate the anniversary of the Immaculate Reception.
Derrick Henry over 110.5 rushing yards
Yes, this is a preposterous number but he literally has rushed for over 210 yards in each of his last four games against the Texans.
Giants +4 at Vikings
Neither of these two teams are as good as their record, with the Giants 22nd in DVOA and the Vikings 25th.
They both also have a flair for the dramatic. I’ll take the points and see if Brian Daboll can further solidify his team’s playoff chances.
Seahawks +10 at Chiefs
The Chiefs have failed to cover in each of their last five games despite winning four of those.
Things haven’t been a lot better for the Seahawks, they’ve failed to cover in each of their last five as well. But that stretch includes losses of eight, six, six, and five points.
The glass slipper is starting to fall off for Seattle, but they can keep things close against a team that just went to overtime against the Texans.
Lions -2.5 at Panthers
The Lions are just better than the Panthers. They’re 4th in DVOA since their hot streak started in Week 8. No one on the Panthers scares me at all. Don’t think and bet (a fool-proof plan).
Christmas Dominoes Bonus: AJ Feldman +200
That’s right, I’m betting on myself. The Feldman Christmas Eve domino game is THE matchup of the year, I’ve taken it to the next level and created lines. Feel free to reach out on Twitter and I’ll be your bookie for this one.
AJ: +200 (five wins in the last ten years)
Brian (my dad): +230 (defending champ, had a dominant run before 2012 when I started keeping the scoresheet)
Heather (my sister): +360 (three wins in the last ten years, but none in the last three)
Michelle (my mom): +550 (victory in 2016 believed to be her first-ever)
Week 15: 7-1
2022 Season: 44-51-3