ROCHESTER, N.Y. (WROC) — It was a tough go for Feldman’s Favorites last week. Six picks, just two wins, and they both came on the same game.
How I lost was just as bad as how many I lost. I highlighted the big leg of Tyler Bass as a reason the Bills could eke out a close one. He missed a crucial kick into the wind. I pumped up divisional unders, then went 0-2 as my under went over and my over (picking against the trend) went under. I picked the Vikings to cover, they gave the Lions their first win.
Despite the rough outing, I am still three games above .500 on the season. But we’re going to need some positive weeks to keep it that way.
As always, the picks are the consensus line on the Action Network at the time of this article’s publication.
Buccaneers -3.5 vs. Bills
Hopefully, you got this line at -3 if you’re going to go with the defending Super Bowl Champs.
Whether or not Monday night’s game could be classified as “embarrassing”, it certainly wasn’t good. To lose to a team that threw just three passes is terrible.
You know the last time a team played without any semblance of a passing attack? It was last year when the Broncos took on the Saints with practice squad wide receiver Kendall Hinton at quarterback. The Broncos averaged three yards per carry, lost 31-3, and their only scoring drive went one yard. That’s the type of performance you would hope your vaunted defense would put up in a windstorm against a rookie QB.
The offense was even worse. Their only touchdown was gifted off a special teams turnover and they went one for four in the red zone. They showed no urgency when playing with the wind when they had to take advantage of the elements.
The Bills have one win this year that holds any sort of weight and that’s the Chiefs when they were playing terrible football. All of their other wins are against bad teams, bad quarterbacks, or decent teams that were playing badly.
Until the Bills show me they have any sort of fight or the ability to win a close game against a decent team, I will pick against them.
Ravens at Browns Under 42.5
We’re going back to the well with the late-season divisional unders.
Lamar Jackson has thrown eight interceptions over his last four games. The Ravens have not reached 20 points in their last four games. The Browns have scored 30 points in their last three games. These two teams met two weeks ago and scored just 26 points. All signs point to another low-scoring game.
49ers -1.5 at Bengals
This line initially opened at Bengals -2 and has swung all the way around to favor San Francisco. The 49ers are 7th in DVOA and the Bengals are 19th.
Joe Burrow’s throwing hand is all sorts of messed up and Joe Mixon is questionable as well. I still don’t fully trust this Bengals team so I’ll go with the Niners.
Lions at Broncos Under 42
DeAndre Swift and Jamaal Williams are both out and T.J. Hockenson is doubtful. As I highlighted last week, the Lions’ offense has been bad. Very bad. Last week was probably just a fluke.
The Broncos will run with Javonte Williams until his legs fall off and chew up the clock. In the six games that the Broncos have won this year, the under has cashed every single time.
The Broncos are 10-3 going under this year and the Lions are 8-4. This game will be ugly. I don’t hate Broncos -10, too.
Teaser: Washington (+10.5 from +4.5) vs. Cowboys, Titans (-2.5 from 8.5) vs. Jaguars
I’m really not a big fan of this slate so I’m going with a teaser to try and find a fifth win.
I get a team on a four-game winning streak getting more than ten points at home against a divisional rival.
I get the Titans coming off of a bye against a Jaguars team that has is currently fighting in the media about how much James Robinson should play. That works for me.
Week 13: 2-4
2021 Season: 35-32-1