ROCHESTER, N.Y. (WROC) — If there was ever a bad beat to summarize my season, it happened last week.

The pick? Dolphins team total over 30.5. Miami gets off to a blazing hot start. The offense is clicking. The defense is getting turnovers. Mike McDaniel is cracking jokes. The Dolphins score 30 points in the first half.

Then, their starting left tackle gets hurt. Tua leaves the game in the third quarter. They score zero points in the second half.

You really can’t make this stuff up.

A loss there sunk my record to 2-4 for the week.

Nevertheless, we chug on. As always, ignore the commercials and bet within your limits.

Bills at Patriots Under 44.5, Matthew Judon sack

1-1 on Thursday night. And if it was Matthew Judon and not Josh Uche who was getting it done, it would have been a clean sweep.

Lions (Pk) vs. Jaguars

The Lions have more time to prepare after last week’s Thanksgiving game. They’re playing their second straight home game and have covered in each of their last four games. I liked the way they looked against the Bills and think they can get another win over a bad team.

The Jaguars are being overvalued slightly after an emotional win over the Ravens. Take the better team playing at home.

Broncos at Ravens Under 40

Betting Broncos unders have accounted for almost 60% of my victories this season (barely an exaggeration).

The Broncos are 10-1 going under. The Ravens are 7-4. Both teams will run and try and put viewers of this game out of their misery as quickly as possible.

Texans +8 vs. Browns

You’ve got a quarterback who hasn’t played in almost two years going up against a team that desperately, desperately will try and beat him. If there’s ever a kitchen sink game for a 1-9-1 football team, this is it.

Cleveland is 29th in defensive DVOA and Kyle Allen at least looked tolerable in garbage time against the Dolphins. He can get the backdoor cover.

Dolphins +4.5 at 49ers

At worst, I think these two teams are even so I’ll gladly take 4.5 points. The Dolphins have been dynamite with Tua at the helm. Miami’s utter lack of a left tackle will certainly be a setback against Nick Bosa, but the 49ers have both Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams hampered by injuries, arguably their two most important offensive players.

Week 12: 2-4

2022 Season: 30-44-3