Feldman’s Favorites: Week 13

Feldman's Favorites

AJ's ready to turn the ship around with six winners this week

FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS – DECEMBER 28: Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills runs the ball during the second half against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium on December 28, 2020 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images)

ROCHESTER, N.Y. (WROC) — Like most holiday weekends, Thanksgiving was filled with plenty of Sunday Scaries for Feldman’s Favorites.

After nailing the Bills game on Thanksgiving night, a 1-3 Sunday slate sunk down my record to 2-3 for the week. Tyrod Taylor couldn’t finish the Jets off and both the Eagles and Rams turned in stinkers. Luckily, the Vikings and 49ers over covered at just about halftime.

I might be in a bit of a slump, with four losing weeks out of the past six. However, the losses have been minimal as I’m still 14-17 over that stretch and 33-28-1 for the season.

Time to get back on track with a winning week. As always, the lines are the consensus at the Action Network at the time of this article’s publication.

Bills -2.5 vs. Patriots

I can’t say I feel too strongly about this one, but I can’t help myself from taking the Bills giving less than a field goal at home.

The Patriots are the hottest team in the league, winning their last six games and giving up no more than 13 points in each of their last four wins.

But their strength of schedule is not that strong. They’ve taken down the Jets, Chargers, Panthers, Browns, Falcons, and the banged-up Titans. Not exactly murderers row. Granted, you could say just about the same thing about the Bills’ wins so far this season.

But it’s very hard to play almost two straight months of strong football in the NFL. Mac Jones hasn’t been asked to do too much and now he’s in primetime on Monday night against an experienced secondary in adverse conditions.

If this game comes down to a late field goal, Buffalo has the advantage as Nick Folk doesn’t have nearly the leg of Tyler Bass to drive through the wind on a long field goal.

Colts at Texans Over 44.5

The Colts are putting up and giving up points aplenty. Their last five games have featured outings of 75, 69, 65, and 56 points. Their “low-scoring” game against the Jaguars still got to 40 points.

The Texans don’t make us feel quite as strong betting the over, as over is 1-5 in their last six games. When these two teams met in October, it was just a 31-3 game.

But I believe Jonathan Taylor will dictate the flow of this one and he should be able to run over the Texans. The Texans have also scored at least 21 points in three of the five games Tyrod Taylor has started this year.

Vikings -7 at Lions

17. 17. 14. 17. 11. 19. 6. 13 10. 14.

Those are the number of points the Lions have scored in their last ten games. In the pass-happy year of 2021. Yikes.

To make matters worse, they’ll be without De’Andre Swift, their only offensive playmaker that makes you worry at all.

The Vikings have covered in three of their last four games and shouldn’t be in a position to lose this game by a last-second field goal.

Dolphins -6.5 vs. Giants, Under 39.5

Going to double-dip here. This is such an ugly number to bet the under on, but typically these comically low numbers don’t seem to hit.

These two teams combined are 9-1 going under in each of their last ten games.

The Giants have scored more than 17 points once in their last four games and have Mike Glennon playing quarterback this week. The Dolphins have allowed 10, 17, 10, and 9 points in their last four games

I don’t see many points being scored in this game, but the Dolphins will get the majority of them. They’re 4-0 straight-up and against the spread in their last four.

49ers at Seahawks Under 45.5

Betting divisional unders late in the year is one of the best bets to make. Heading into this season, 61% of divisional games after Week 10 since 2005 went under. Please ignore the fact that I disregarded the trend for the Colts/Texans game.

The Seahawks have gone under in their last NINE games. The 49ers have found a bit of a groove on offense but will be without Deebo Samuel. I see a classic low-scoring strange Seahawks game in the cards.

Week 12: 2-3

2021 Season Record: 33-28-1

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