ROCHESTER, N.Y. (WROC) — The Bills got back on track last week. I did not.
The first touchdown ever scored by Jakobi Meyers and a half-point bad beat by the Titans gave me a 2-4 record, the first time this year I’ve been two games under .500. Oh well. We move on.
A bad week still doesn’t hurt us too much, as I’m at 28-23-1 on the season.
Picking six games may have been bad luck, so we’re back to the usual five. As always, the lines are the consensus lines on the Action Network at the time of publication.
Colts (+7.5) at Bills
It seems quite likely that Spencer Brown and Star Lotulelei will both miss this week’s game after being placed on the COVID list. The last time the Bills were missing both Brown and Jon Feliciano, it was the Jaguars’ abomination. The Bills did a good job in replacing Lotulelei last week, but Jonathan Taylor is a different beast.
When the Colts met the Bills last year in the playoffs, it was a 27-24 game that went right down to the wire. I’m not saying the Bills will lose, but 7.5 is too much for the Bills to give when their only good game of late has been against Mike White and the Jets.
Texans (+10) at Titans
We’re going with another road dog. The Texans are coming off of their bye and Tyrod Taylor will be healthier with another week of rest.
The Titans have played better than anyone in the league lately, but are due for a setback. They’re 5-1 ATS over their last six, with the only loss coming when I picked them to cover against the Saints.
Despite their winning streak, they remain just 18th in the league in Football Outsider’s DVOA. That regression has to come eventually and I say it comes this week.
Steelers at Chargers Under 46.5
It’s still uncertain who will play QB for the Steelers on Sunday night. Whether it’s Mason Rudolph or Ben Roethlisberger, I don’t trust them to get to 20. Even with the Steelers missing TJ Watt and Joe Haden, they’ll still keep this one close in typical Mike Tomlin underdog fashion.
Dolphins (-3.5) at Jets
The Dolphins are 3-7 on the season but three of those losses have been on the very last play of the game. Their defense is finally playing like we expected heading into the season, holding the Ravens to 10 points and the Texans to 9.
Miami gets a few extra days of rest and they get to play against Joe Flacco. Seems like a good formula to me.
Bengals at Raiders Over 50.5
The over has hit in each of the last three Bengals games. The two previous games were under, but each of those games had at least 45 points scores. Raiders games have gone over three of the last four games.
Each team gave up 41 points in their last game. Both teams are primed for bounce-back games on offense and with neither team possessing a top-20 defense by DVOA I see a lot of points being put up.