ROCHESTER, N.Y. (WROC) — The saying goes that you won’t go broke making a profit. That’s very much true.
But you also probably aren’t going to go broke going 2-3… if you don’t do it every week.
Last week was tied for my worst outing of the season go far, just a mere one game under .500. A small setback puts us seven games above .500 for the year with a 26-19-1 record.
As the Bills say ad nauseam, it’s a week-to-week league and I’m moving on to Week 10. Also, can you believe it’s already Week 10?
As always, the lines are the consensus at the Action Network at the time of this article’s publication.
First Half: Bills -6.5 at Jets
After two straight clunkers, one that saw the Bills fail to score a touchdown against one of the worst teams in the league, the Bills will come out hungry.
Granted, I used similar logic to pick them to beat down Jacksonville, but I can’t see them playing poorly three weeks in a row.
The first half line keeps us under a touchdown and prevents us from any crazy Mike White backdoor cover action that the Jets almost pulled off last week.
The Bills opened their season with five straight covers in the first half and I think they’ll find their way this week in a “get right” game.
Expect Brian Daboll to use everything but the kitchen sink early, too.
Browns at Patriots Under 45
The last time the Browns played without Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, they grinded out a 17-14 win over the Broncos. With it looking like neither will play against the Patriots, I think they’ll try and have a similar game script. New England’s top two running backs are questionable as well.
The over has cashed in four of the last five Patriots games, but last week 24-6 win seems like more of the type of game Bill Belichick wants to play with his rookie QB.
New England has the 5th ranked defense in DVOA and Cleveland has the 12th best. Two strong defenses plus two teams that have reason to keep things conservative should mean a low-scoring game.
Colts -10.5 vs. Jaguars
You’ve got the Colts with some extra rest. You’ve got the Jaguars coming off of their game of the year. Seems like a recipe for a Jags letdown and a comfortable Indy win.
The Colts have had two games this year as double-digit favorites. They’re 2-0, beating the Dolphins 31-3 and the Jets 45-30 last week.
Their offensive line is getting healthy as is their entire team and their defense should be able to shut down a Jacksonville offense that has only scored 16 points the last two weeks combined.
Cardinals -10.5 vs. Panthers
Is this a suckers line? Maybe. Is this one of the best teams in the league at home playing one of the worst teams in the league that’s 1-5 against the spread in their last six and is starting a quarterback best known for his days in the XFL giving less than two touchdowns? Yes.
Lions +8.5 at Steelers
The Steelers have won four games in a row and only one of them even remotely makes me think they are a good football team.
The Lions are coming off of a bye and the Steelers are on a short week. Detroit is 4-4 ATS this year and this is setting up for them to ascend to 5-4.
Titans -2.5 vs. Saints
The sharps are on the Saints but with Alvin Kamara looking more and more likely that he’s going to miss this game, who on the Saints’ offense scares you? An offense that is led by Trevor Simien? Exactly.
2021 Season: 26-19-1