ROCHESTER, N.Y. (WROC) — We are officially on a hot streak.

Last week was another stellar week of picks, as I went 7-3 in the first round of the playoffs.

Over the last two weeks, I’m 14-6. Over the last six weeks, I’m 30-17. We’ve gone from 14 games under .500 to just a single game just like that. It’s time to get positive for good and stay that way for the rest of the season.

As always, ignore the commercials and bet within your limits.

Bengals +5.5 at Bills

I liked this line at 3.5, liked it even more at 4.5, and downright love it at 5.5. I would be stunned if it gets to 6, so I think you’re good betting it here.

Neither team looked very good in the first round of the playoffs. Both teams are on long winning streaks. They’re both top-five in DVOA. Yet I’m getting almost a touchdown?

It would obviously be foolish to take too much stock in the first few drives of the original showdown. But the Bengals looked really darn good and it didn’t seem like the Bills had any answers for them.

Obviously, the Bengals have gotten banged up on the o-line since then. But with no Von Miller, will the Bills have the horses to make them pay for it?

If you had to hold me to it, I would probably give the Bills the edge because of home field. But I’ll gladly take all those points against a team that beat the Dolphins by 3 twice, the Jets by 8, and the Lions by 3 on this winning streak.

Bengals at Bills over 48.5

I took the under in the first game and immediately regretted it.

Now, I have a hard time believing this isn’t going to turn into a shootout between two of the game’s top QBs.

The Bengals’ o-line can do enough to let Burrow provide points. Josh Allen is Josh Allen. Both teams will hit 24 points.

Josh Allen over 45.5 rushing yards

You know the drill. Big Bills game, bet Josh’s rushing overs. I’m quite alright betting both his yards and his attempts, but I feel this is the safer number.

He’s hit this number nine this year, while he’s cleared 8.5 attempts eight times. Last year he cleared the yards over both times in the playoffs, but missed the attempts in the Patriots game. In 2020, he hit the yards total but not attempts in the AFC Championship game.

Granted, you’re getting plus money for the attempts, but it’s for a good reason. I’ll stick with yards.

Jaguars +9 at Chiefs

Are you ready for the Chiefs to look mediocre, only for Mahomes to save them at the end while they win but not cover? Because I am.

The Chiefs have won their last five games but covered in just two of them.

While the Jaguars are obviously somewhere between their terrible first half and their amazing second half, I think it’s closer to the latter.

They were coming off a very physical game against the Titans, they’ll be fresher despite going on the road to Arrowhead.

Eagles -7.5 vs. Giants

I think this is when the Daboll magic runs out.

Eventually, talent wins out. The Giants had a fantastic year, but I think their time is done.

The Eagles are 3rd in DVOA, the Giants are chilling all the way down at 21st. Philly is 6th in yards per play, the Giants are 20th.

When these two teams met back in Week 14, the Eagles killed them 48-22. This will be a two-score game.

Isaiah Hodgins anytime touchdown +265

Hodgins has scored a touchdown in five of his last six games, all coming in the red zone. One of those came earlier this season against the Eagles. He’s also had a touchdown in every game he’s gotten more than four targets this year with the Giants.

Last week he had nine, the two weeks prior he had five and twelve.

Travis Etienne over 19.5 receiving yards, Saquon Barkley over 25.5 receiving yards

Tailing Chris Raybon of the Action Network with both of these bets. Etienne got 85% of the work on pass plays last week, Barkley ran routes on 95% of pass plays. Both of their opponents are bottom-ten in the league in DVOA to passes to running backs. Both teams should also be down early and will have to throw a lot.

49ers -3.5 vs. Cowboys

The sharps absolutely love the Cowboys but I do not care.

The 49ers defense is the best and most complete unit in football. They have the better weapons on offense. Brock Purdy will throw two touchdowns in every game for the rest of his life.

Plus, you’ve got the 49ers on extra rest at home for the third straight week while the Cowboys are on a short week playing their fourth straight road game.

Brock Purdy over 1.5 passing touchdowns

-125 (at FanDuel) is a great line for someone who, as previously mentioned, has literally hit this number every game this season. Let’s double down on Mr. Irrelevant.

Wild Card Round: 7-3

2022-23 Season: 66-67-3