ROCHESTER, N.Y. (WROC) — M.Trubisky in at QB. M.Trubisky kneels to BUF 23 for no gain. M.Trubisky kneels to BUF 22 for -1 yards. M.Trubisky kneels to BUF 21 for -1 yards.
That was the difference between a 3-3 week and a 4-2 week for Feldman’s Favorites in the wild card round. Mitch Trubisky went in as the victory cigar and Josh Allen’s rushing attempts prop went up in smokes.
I wouldn’t be so upset about a bad beat like that if it wasn’t for the fact that the thinking was so accurate. He ran early, just they didn’t need him to run late because they were busy sending the Patriots back to the shadow realm.
Either way, a 3-3 week is not the end of the world. That puts my record at 57-51-3 heading into this week’s action.
These lines are the consensus lines on the Action Network at the time of this article’s publication. The first three bets however I tweeted out and were featured on News 8 at 6 on Friday, so hopefully, you got those lines before they maybe were gone.
Bills +2 at Chiefs
I just think it’s their time.
I said it last year and was wrong. I think I will be right this time.
The Bills put on the performance of a lifetime against the Patriots and the Chiefs do not have a better defense than New England.
Maybe they’ll play them differently. Maybe Chris Jones will wreak havoc on the Bills’ o-line. But they haven’t let Allen get sacked in the last four games.
If it makes you feel any better, the big money is on your side. This line started at -2.5/-3 and is trending down. It could get close to a pick’em game by kickoff.
Josh Allen over 50.5 rushing yards
Am I going to the Allen rushing well again? Yes. Am I changing it up to avoid a Trubisky disaster by going with yards instead of attempts? Yes. Will the yards probably not hit and the attempts hit as a result? Definitely.
Same logic as last week, Allen runs in big games. Did it in their last two matchups with the Chiefs. He’s hit this total in five of his last six. Run Josh, run.
Mecole Hardman over 31.5 receiving yards
The Bills haven’t missed too much of a beat without Tre White in their secondary, but they haven’t faced the Chiefs.
I think the Bills will devote so much attention to Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill as a result that the secondary options could thrive.
Hardman has 31 or more receiving yards in five of his last six games. In the Bills/Chiefs regular-season showdown, he had nine catches which were the most of his career.
Bills at Chiefs over 54
Offenses beat defenses in the NFL. Two of the best, maybe the two best, will be on the same field at Arrowhead Stadium. You’re going to need 30 points to win this game. The loser might get there as well.
Bengals (+4) at Titans
Simply put, I don’t think there’s a big enough difference between the Titans and the Bengals for either team to be giving more than a field goal.
The Bengals (17th in Overall DVOA) might even be better than the Titans (20th).
Who knows what Derrick Henry will look like coming off of his injury. It’s very possible he runs for 200 yards, Joe Burrow gets sacked six times, and the Titans roll. I’ll bet otherwise.
Buccaneers (-2.5) vs. Rams
I’ve just had a weird feeling about the Rams coming down the stretch. I’m not thrilled about how they finished up the season.
Matt Stafford did not play great football in the second half of the season, throwing eight interceptions in his last four regular season games. He didn’t throw a pick against the Cardinals, but he only had 17 attempts. His stud left tackle Andrew Whitworth is also out for this game.
I also could have just made this write-up “Tom Brady at home in the playoffs.”
Tom Brady at home in the playoffs.
Wild Card Round: 3-3
2020-21 record: 57-51-3