Feldman’s Favorites: Conference Championship Sunday

SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 22: Fred Warner #54 of the San Francisco 49ers celebrates with teammates after an interception against the Dallas Cowboys…

SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 22: Fred Warner #54 of the San Francisco 49ers celebrates with teammates after an interception against the Dallas Cowboys during the second quarter of the game in the NFC Divisional Playoff game at Levi’s Stadium on January 22, 2023 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images)

AJ's looking to repeat a perfect performance betting against the spread

by: AJ Feldman

Posted: Jan 29, 2023 / 05:28 AM EST

Updated: Jan 29, 2023 / 05:35 AM EST

ROCHESTER, N.Y. (WROC) — Welcome to the best football day of the year, Conference Championship Sunday.

In some regards, you could have called last weekend my best gambling weekend of the year. I went a perfect 4-0 betting the spread. I got every single game right. If you were inclined, you could have parlayed them all together for something like a +1250 payout. Did I? No. But you could have.

In other regards, it was just another mediocre weekend. Every prop I bet… lost. 0-6. Oof.

I implore you to only focus on the big long paragraph singing my praises and ignore all of the other information.

With that result, we are now three games under .500 on the season. Let’s get back to even.

49ers +3 at Eagles

You can only get this line at BetMGM for -120, but the +2.5 lines are trending in that direction. So maybe wait for it to improve, even though it’s never gotten to +3 all week.

I’ve got a 49ers future that I’m hoping cashes this weekend, so I’m a little bit biased. But I’m trusting the 49ers defense over any unit in this game.

They’re #1 in defensive DVOA this season. They’ve got three All-Pros on defense and a few others are at that level.

The Eagles have played the softest schedule in the league according to DVOA (ignore the fact that the 49ers have the 31st toughest).

I just think that the 49ers can make this game low-scoring and Kyle Shanahan can manufacture enough easy throws for Brock Purdy where he can get the ball to his playmakers. Plus, three points ain’t bad.

49ers at Eagles Under 46

Both teams want this game to be low-scoring. The 49ers are going to want to win this game with their defense. The Eagles are going to want to win this game with their rushing attack.

Both keep the clock moving, so let’s take the under.

Bengals +1.5 at Chiefs

I’m not going to lie, I don’t have a really good feel for this game.

But the Bengals just whooped the Bills (who I still think is a pretty darn good team). They’ve beaten the Chiefs their last two times out (maybe this is just a good matchup for them). Their quarterback is healthier (even though Mahomes was serviceable in the second half last week). And they’ve got by far the better skill-position players (no parenthesis needed).

All of that, plus a slight edge on defense gives me enough faith that they can overcome Patrick Mahomes on his home field.

Teaser: 49ers +8.5, Bengals +7.5

Pretty self-explanatory. I get both of the teams that I like past the key number of seven. DraftKings has the best odds of 6-point teasers that move through the key numbers like this one.

Travis Kelce anytime TD Scorer -105

We saw what the first playoff game in a post-Tyreek Hill looked like. 14 catches, 98 yards, and two touchdowns. Feel free to take any of his props, but I’ll stick with the touchdown.