ROCHESTER, N.Y. (WROC) — Bad weeks are going to happen. It’s a natural part of gambling.
What’s unfortunate is when they happen in just the second week of the season.
Last week was brutal, with a 1-5 record and only Aaron Rodgers saving me from a shutout.
I have not gotten a pick right about the Bills games all season long, going 0-5 (0-6 if you include the bonus I gave on News 8). In my defense, the Titans were really darn close to covering in the first half and it would have been nice in Tannehill would have stayed in for some garbage time. Alas. It can’t get any worse, right?
Let’s find out.
Bills at Dolphins Over 52.5
Sometimes, when the obvious bet stares you in the face you just have to take it. We’re not getting cute here.
The Bills can score at will on anyone. The Dolphins can theoretically score at will on the Bills banged-up secondary. I don’t know who this Will is, but people are going to be scoring on him all day long.
Ravens -2.5 at Patriots
I had the unfortunate displeasure of watching all of the Steelers/Patriots game last week. It was not a pretty sight.
Lamar Jackson creates more excitement in one snap than the Patriots offense can in an entire game.
So what if the Ravens blew a 21-point lead last week? The Patriots haven’t scored 20 points in a game all season.
The Patriots are going to be a bet-against team for me all season long until the market adjusts. A good team giving less than a field goal? Don’t have to tell me twice.
Lions at Vikings Over 52
The Lions are just the 15th team in the last 20 years to allow 30 points per game and score 30 points per game in their first two contests.
The Vikings laid an egg on primetime but Kirk is back where he belongs, at 1:00. Justin Jefferson and Amon-Ra St. Brown are both going to catch two touchdowns each as this game flashes on your Red Zone TV while you cash your bet.
Rams -3.5 at Cardinals
The Cardinals may have stormed back for a dramatic victory but I think it’s giving us some nice value.
Sean McVay is 5-1-1 against the spread and 6-1 straight up against Kliff Kingsbury. Each of those wins were by at least a touchdown. McVay is 10-5 against the spread in divisional road games and the Rams are 11-3 ATS against the Cardinals since 2015.
The Cardinals are dead last in EPA/play so far on defense. That’s not good. Seems like something McVAy, Matt Stafford, and Cooper Kupp can exploit.
Texans +3 at Bears
Chicago may be the only team to have a rough day offensively in a monsoon and then somehow look worse the next week.
Week 3 dogs that are facing a team coming off of a loss are 65-48-3 against the spread since 2005 and are 13-2 ATS over the last three years.
It’s time to join Mills Mafia and ride Lovie Smith against his former team.
CeeDee Lamb under 60.5 receiving yards
Over his last ten games, Adoree’ Jackson has allowed just 13 catches for 97 yards. Ten games. 97 yards. The best line is at POintsBet.
Week 2: 1-5
2022 Season: 5-9