ROCHESTER, N.Y. (WROC) — Week one is in the books and it’s time to start a winning streak.
Last week, we started 3-2 and would have been 4-1 if D’Andre Swift catches an easy touchdown to beat the Bears. I digress.
The same principles as week one generally apply to week two. The key is figuring out which performances last week were legit and which were the outliers. If you’re still riding on the Jets’ bandwagon, you both have a lot of legroom and the ability to make some money.
The hypothesis that overs would cash in the early weeks also proved to be somewhat accurate. The overs started blazing hot, going 8-2 after the 1:00 games wrapped up. Then they cooled off, finishing at 9-7. Hopefully, you didn’t smash the overs after seeing how the early games went. I’m not saying I did that. But I’m not saying I didn’t do that.
On to the picks…
Bills -5.5 at Dolphins
Are you one of the approximately three million Bills fans on Twitter who freaked out when people made fun of Josh Allen’s miss in the endzone? Congratulations, you can thank those types of throws for this line.
We don’t need to have the Josh Allen debate in this article, but the guy makes good plays and bad plays. If he plays at the level that diehard Bills fans think he can get to, the Bills will be Super Bowl contenders. If the Bills are Super Bowl contenders, there’s no way you’re getting this line against the Dolphins.
Matt Milano and Tremaine Edmunds have been ruled out for Sunday’s game. That will hurt the defense for sure, but it’s nothing the rest of the team can overcome. Generally, one or two injuries will never move a line unless they’re to a quarterback or an All-Pro-caliber player. I’m still confident taking the Bills. Bills 27-17.
49ers -7 at Jets
Remember that Jets bandwagon I was talking about earlier? I’m definitely not on it.
Adam Gase might be fired before he wins a game this season. That’s how bad the Jets looked for most of last week’s Bills win.
The 49ers were torched last week by Kyler Murray running the ball and throwing it to DeAndre Hopkins. *checks notes* Yep, the Jets don’t have anyone nearly that good.
Both teams are banged up, with Jamison Crowder and Le’Veon Bell out for New York and George Kittle out for San Francisco. Expect a boring game that the 49ers win comfortably.
Rams +1 at Eagles
The Eagles gave up 8 sacks last week to the Washington Football Team. The Rams have Aaron Donald.
Ravens -7 at Texans
This line is bouncing between -7 and -7.5 so get it without the hook if you still can.
I’m very down on the Texans this year and it played out that way during the season’s opening game. Not every team they play this year is going to be as talented as the Chiefs. But the Ravens are as close to them as you can get.
Patrick Mahomes went 24-of-32 in week one and only two of his throws were into tight coverage (a defender within a yard of the receiver). The Texans secondary didn’t play well and Lamar Jackson will feast.
We’re going with four road teams and three road favorites. It’s just that kind of week. There are also a lot of favorites in the 6 to 9-point range that are ripe for a tease. If you want to have some fun, throw Pittsburgh (-1), San Francisco (-1), Buffalo (+.5), Baltimore (-1), and Kansas City (-2.5) in a 5-team, 6-point teaser that will pay out at +500.
Falcons at Cowboys over 53.5
We’re heading to the Lone Star State for our lone over of the week. Remember how I said that Mahomes barely had to throw into tight coverage? Last week, Russell Wilson went 31-of-35 for four touchdowns and didn’t have to throw a single pass into tight coverage. That’s how bad Atlanta’s secondary was.
The Falcons proved they could still sling it around as Matt Ryan led all players with 450 passing yards in week one. CeeDee Lamb made a big splash last week and it seems like he’ll form quite the trio with Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup.
The Cowboys are already suffering with injuries to their defense as Leighton Vander Esch has joined fellow linebacker Sean Lee in the training room.
Everything in this game is pointing to the over.
Week 1 results: 3-2
2020 season: 3-2
Bills bets: 1-0
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