ROCHESTER, N.Y. (WROC) — After two weeks in a row of razor-thin results, it’s time to admit that Vegas knows what it’s doing when they set these lines. Wait, you already knew that?
Last week was a 1-3-1 result with some more tough losses. Baltimore took its foot off the gas and Washington got a late touchdown for a push. A frantic fourth quarter couldn’t make up for the Dolphins’ five field goals and the over missed by a half-point. The Cardinals and Cowboys… don’t ask.
Our bread and butter this season, betting the Bills games, might not even be on the table this week. By the time you read this article, their game with the Titans might be canceled. Either way, it’s time to make some more picks.
These lines are made with the consensus line at the time of publication on The Action Network. If you can get a better line, they’re even better bets, but we play with the lines that most people are getting.
Steelers (-7) vs. Eagles
My long-standing belief in betting the Steelers is that you can feel confident betting on them against good teams, but you should avoid them playing inferior opponents. So what do you do with a bad team that masquerades as a good team? Enter the first-place Eagles.
T.J. Watt and Bud Dupree have become one of the best pass-rushing tandems in the league. The Eagles offensive line is still a work in progress (and that’s being very nice). Philadelphia has only had one respectable showing this season and that was a win against the beat-up 49ers.
Pittsburgh also had an impromptu bye and is looking to take out its anger on the Eagles. The battle for Pennsylvania goes to the Steel City.
Rams at Washington Football Team Over 46
Kyle Allen has taken control of Washington. Terry McLaurin and the over will benefit. McLaurin has the 6th-most receiving yards in the league this season and that was with the wildly inaccurate Dwayne Haskins throwing to him.
The Rams also are getting a boost with Cam Akers returning to the backfield. It will create a headache for fantasy football owners, but the play-action will thrive and the Rams will move the ball against a Football Team defense that doesn’t have Chase Young at 100% (or at all).
Dolphins (+9) at 49ers
As mentioned previously, the Dolphins were right in that game against the Seahawks but just couldn’t convert in the red zone. They’re 2-2 against the spread with two close losses and 11-5 ATS over their last 16 games.
Jimmy Garoppolo may be coming back, but the roster is still ravaged by injuries with three cornerbacks out for this week’s game. Fitzpatrick is the king of the backdoor cover and I believe he’ll deliver once again.
Jaguars at Texans Under 54.5
Both teams are 3-1 cashing overs this season, but it’s not because of their offenses. Jacksonville sits 23rd in the league with 23.7 points per game and Houston has topped out at 23 points this season.
Bill O’Brien’s firing may light a fuse under the team, but unfortunately the impact of Bill O’Brien the GM is still there. Romeo Crennel is taking over and he doesn’t exactly inspire confidence either. Jaguars/Texans games have gone under the last four times and after this week it’ll be 5.
Colts at Browns Under 47.5
We’re sticking with the unders, thinking that these inflated lines regress the overs back to the mean.
On paper, the Colts have by far the best defense in the league. They’re allowing 236 yards per game and the next best is 290. The under has cashed in each of their last three games.
On the other hand, the Browns have cleared the over all of their last three contests. But they don’t have Nick Chubb this week and they’ve beat-up on the Cowboys, Washington, and the Bengals. I expect a low-scoring slugfest.
Bills Bet: Bills (-???) at Titans
There’s no line for this game right now, but if it still happens I’m going to take the Bills. The Titans haven’t held a (league-approved) practice in over a week. The Titans may be undefeated but they are 0-3 ATS this year and have been out-gained in yards this season.
If this game kicks off, give me Buffalo and I’m making it a Feldman’s Favorite as well.
Week 4 results: 1-3-1
2020 season: 9-12-1
Bills Bets: 3-1
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