Feldman’s Favorites: Week 13


AJ's back and looking to build another winning streak

ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK – NOVEMBER 29: Dawson Knox #88 and Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills celebrate after scoring a touchdown during the first quarter against the Los Angeles Chargers at Bills Stadium on November 29, 2020 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Bryan Bennett/Getty Images)

ROCHESTER, N.Y. (WROC) — We’re baaaaaaaack.

That’s right. After three-straight weeks of futility, I finally decided to show that I’m not completely terrible at doing this.

I went 3-1-1 and even predicted the Panthers/Vikings as perfectly as you could.

That’s true talent. Or dumb luck. You be the judge.

It wouldn’t be a Feldman’s Favorites without a tragic result, of course. The “bad beat” heard ’round the world struck me with a push, as the Eagles converted a miraculous Hail Mary then punched in the two. At least it wasn’t a loss.

It’s time to build a winning streak. As always, these lines are made with the consensus lines at The Acton Network at the time of this article’s publication.

Lions (+3) at Bears

I LOVE this bet. I get to bet on the Lions with more time to prepare, I get to bet against the Bears with slightly less time to prepare, I get to bet against whoever the Bears throw out at quarterback, and I got to bet against Matt Patricia.

As in, I get to bet on the fact that I think Matt Patricia really held the Lions back. Detroit was a trainwreck under Patricia and consistently underperformed under the rocket scientist. Teams also generally perform a little bit better after canning their head coach. Since 2003, teams are 16-14 against the spread the week after they fire their head coach. Prior to the coaching change, those teams were 107-181-5 ATS for the season. This year, the Texans and the Falcons both picked up wins both straight-up and against the spread after firing their coaches.

Add in the fact that D’Andre Swift and Kenny Golladay could return, I’m all in on Detroit.

Raiders (-8.5) at Jets

Are we really overreacting this much to one terrible game by Las Vegas?

Prior to their dumpster fire game against the Falcons (who are playing a lot better lately), the Raiders were on a roll. They won their previous four against the spread and five of their last six.

Everybody was ready to anoint them as an AFC contender and now they’re only giving 8.5 points to the Jets?

Remember, we bet on teams with a pulse against the Jets. The Raiders are quite alive and are getting my money this week.

Also feel free to throw them in a 2-team, 6-point teaser with the Packers (-8/-8.5).

Rams at Cardinals Over 48.5

Going into the season, this game would have had an over of about 54. However, neither team has been kind to the over this year.

Both teams are 3-8 going over this season. The Rams have really struggled to get some points in their games of late, going 1-7 on overs in their last eight. After a string of three overs in a row for the Cardinals, they’ve gone under their last two.

I feel like these performances, especially both offenses’ no-shows last week, are dragging down this total. The Rams are just a week removed from putting up 27 on a good Tampa D and I don’t think Kyler Murray will put up three stinkers in a row.

Dolphins (-11.5) at Bengals

If you’ve been reading this column all year, you know how much I’ve liked betting on the Dolphins this year. They cover a lot (8-3 ATS). They also ended last year 9-3 ATS.

The other reason to like this bet is how bad the Bengals have been without Joe Burrow. In the second half of their game against Washington, the Bengals had two first downs on five drives.

Last week against the Giants, they did manage to score 17 points. However, one was a kickoff return for a TD and the other was a late drive down 9 points where they were aided by two personal foul penalties. In that game they had 155 total yards for a stunning 3.4 yards per play. That’s bad.

Aside from their anomaly against the Broncos, the Dolphins have proven they can put away bad teams like the Jets (x2) and the Jaguars. Expect them to keep right on the Bills’ heels in the division.

Colts at Texans Over 51

If Will Fuller was playing, I think I’d like Texans +3.5. Instead, I’ll stick to the points.

The Colts’ offense is getting going— over their last six games, they’re averaging just under 30 points per game. To help our cause, the defense is starting to give up points, too. Over the last three weeks, Indy’s defense has allowed 12 yards per completion and six yards per play. That’s worst in the league and third-worst, respectively.

As mentioned up above, the Texans have found a groove since they fired Bill O’Brien. If you take out their 7-point outing to the Browns in abysmal weather, they’ve averaged 26 points per game in the other six contests.

Expect a high-scoring game in Houston.

Bills Bet

Bills (-1) at 49ers

I don’t have a good read on this game, so I’m designating it as one of my “Bills Bets” separate from the Feldman’s Favorites.

Both teams are starting to get healthy. The Bills played a C+ game last week and won, but the 49ers are much better than the Chargers. Neither team is really at home with San Francisco living in Arizona for the next three weeks.

I’m not confident enough in the Bills’ offense without John Brown to lock in the over. With the Bills’ defense playing better I could see this being a lower-scoring game like last week.

I’ll simply say that I don’t want to bet on Nick Mullens against the Bills and take Buffalo. Bills 24, 49ers 20.

Week 12 results: 3-1-1

2020 season: 25-37-2

Bills Bets: 6-5

In addition to reading my weekly picks, you can compete against me in our WROC’s Football Pick’em for weekly and season-long prizes. You can find all of my predictions in the VIP section where you can go head-to-head with all of our station’s “VIP” picks.

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