ROCHESTER, N.Y. (WROC) — There’s no way to sugarcoat it. My picks have been terrible.
As you can see from the headline of this article, my “favorites” have been anything but sound. Over the last three weeks, I’m 2-14. Last week, I went 0-5.
Honestly, that’s impressive. I’m too upset to do the math on those odds, but if I did, I’d learn just how unlikely it is to be that bad over 16 games. If you want to figure it out for me, hit me up on Twitter.
Sometimes, you’ve just got to laugh at your failures. At least my preseason picks are doing faaaantastic. No really, they are.
It would be almost impossible for me to be this bad for a fourth-straight week. Key word almost.
As always, these picks are made with the consensus line on The Action Network at the time of publication. Let’s give this a whirl…
Bills (-4.5) vs. Chargers
Thad said a lot of things I agree with about this game, so I’ll let him do most of the talking.
The John Brown injury frightens me. The offense has been much worse without him than with him.
But I think the bye week helps. Expect Brian Daboll to dish out a lot of fun things and a lot of Isaiah McKenzie tomfoolery.
The defense is finally healthy and I’m going to trust an experienced defense and defensive coordinator to confuse Justin Herbert.
I’m a bit worried about a backdoor cover, but hopefully they’re up by enough to make it not matter. Bills 33, Chargers 27
Browns at Jaguars Under 48.5
The sharps seem to like this play. After sitting at 49.5 for a lot of the week, it’s moved down a point and it looks like it’s going further down.
The Browns like to run the ball. They’ve gone under four of their last five. The Jaguars can’t score. They’ve gone under their last two.
Mike Glennon is under center this week and he won’t have D.J. Chark or Chris Conley. Expect a lot of running in this game and not a lot of points.
Panthers (+3) at Vikings
The Panthers have been solid all year long. They’ve stayed in games, they’ve won a few, and they cover most of the time (6-5).
You never know what you’re going to get with the Vikings. Sometimes you get the team that rolls off three straight against the Packers, Lions, and Bears. Other times you get the team that lays an egg to the Cowboys.
Those are two good reasons to like the Panthers, but my biggest is Adam Thielen being out. He’s the glue that keeps the passing game together. Dalvin Cook is great and the Panthers’ run defense is not, but Carolina has held their opponents to 95 yards per game on the ground over the last three weeks.
Don’t be surprised if this is a weird game that the Vikings win by 1 or 2, so take the points.
Dolphins (-7) at Jets
Somehow, the Jets have covered in three of their last four games. The game before that? Their 24-0 loss against the Dolphins.
Miami was due to come back to Earth last week (ignore the fact that I picked them). Tagovailoa is doubtful so it looks like more Fitzmagic this week. That’s okay with me.
The Jets take care of business and lose another to stay in the lead for Trevor Lawrence.
Seahawks (-6) at Eagles
I’ve been burned by the Eagles far too many times this year. It’s time to start betting against them.
I don’t care how healthy it seems like they’re getting. I don’t care if they have a quick burst of life from time to time where they trick people into thinking they’re good. I really don’t care.
The Eagles are 1-3 ATS in their last four games. The Seahawks defense has played better the last two weeks. Granted, it would be tough for them to play worse than they were. They held the Cardinals and Rams to 21 and 23 points respectively. The high-flying Cardinals could only muster up 5.0 yards per play, which would be tied for 27th best in the NFL for the season.
Chris Carson is set to come back and will give the offense a weapon out of the backfield. They also had a few more days to prepare after the Thursday night game. Take the Seahawks.
Week 11 results: 0-5
2020 season: 22-36-1
Bills Bets: 5-5
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