Feldman’s Favorites: Week 11

NFL

Things have to turn around eventually, right?

Football: Kansas City Chiefs coach Andy Reid during game vs Denver Broncos at
Sports Authority Field. Reid wearing face shield. Weather, snow.
Denver, CO 10/25/2020
CREDIT: Jamie Schwaberow (Photo by Jamie Schwaberow/Sports Illustrated via Getty Images) (Set Number: X163433)

ROCHESTER, N.Y. (WROC) — We are officially in a slump. A big slump.

Last week was another 1-4 week and it wasn’t very close. Sure, we can blame the weather in Cleveland for ruining the over. I guess if the Cardinals kick an extra point after a miraculous win, they push. But not even I can buy those terrible excuses.

The Bills may be on a bye this week but Feldman’s Favorites does not take any time off. It’s time to get back on the horse. As always, these lines are made with the consensus lines on the Action Network at time of publication.

Chiefs (-7.5) at Raiders

Andy Reid after a bye.

That’s really all that needs to be said. Including the playoffs, Reid’s teams are 23-5 straight up and 20-8 ATS after byes.

That’s pretty good. Factor in that most of the Raiders’ defense didn’t practice this week thanks to being on the COVID list and you’ve got a recipe for a big Chiefs win. Last year, the Chiefs also played the Raiders after the bye and won 40-9. I’m not expecting that, but a double-digit win seems in the cards.

Packers (+1.5) at Colts, Under 51.5

I’m going to take Aaron Rodgers over the corpse of Philip Rivers in this one.

I think the Colts will try and run the ball in this one to shorten the game. I believe that the Packers are going to get just enough on the stingy Colts defense to come out with the win.

The Colts allow the fourth-fewest points per game. They’re second-best in passing yards and fourth-best against the run.

The Packers have played better on the road this year, going 4-1 against the spread. Also, Rodgers and LaFleur are 4-1 as underdogs in their time together. All this adds up to a close, low-scoring Green Bay win to me.

Dolphins (-3.5) at Broncos

Welcome to a tie atop the AFC East, Miami.

The Dolphins are one of, if not the hottest team in the league. They’re on a five-game winning stream and they’re 5-0 ATS in that time. It’s not a murderer’s row of opponents, but they’ve won at Arizona and home against the Chargers. They also destroyed the 49ers in San Fran when Jimmy G got the start.

The Broncos, on the other hand, are just bad. They got wrecked by the Raiders last week, managed to let the Falcons win a game miraculously, and should have lost to the Chargers. Except for, you know, the Chargers doing Chargers-type things. In his last five games, Drew Lock has thrown six touchdowns and ten interceptions.

The Dolphins have been forcing turnovers like crazy and Drew Lock should have at least three. Trust Brian Flores and bet the fish.

Steelers at Jaguars Over 46

I still don’t trust the Steelers to easily beat bad opponents. Last week they did manage to take care of the Bengals. But the weather seemed to really knock the Bengals off their game and the Steelers were finally at home for the first time in almost a month.

The Jaguars defense has allowed at least 24 points every week since Week 1. They allow a league-high 8.6 yards per pass attempt and the Steelers wide receivers should destroy their secondary.

However, I’m still not confident in the Steelers covering the double-digit spread. So I’ll rely on the Steelers’ defense to struggle like they sometimes do against bad teams, Luton to get a few cheap late points, and the pretty low over to hit.

Bonus

Here’s a fun 4-team, 6-point teaser for you. Bengals to +7.5, Packers to +7.5, Vikings to -1, Chiefs to -1.5. Seems easy enough to me at +300.

Week 10 results: 1-4

2020 season: 22-31-1

Bills Bets: 5-5


In addition to reading my weekly picks, you can compete against me in our WROC’s Football Pick’em for weekly and season-long prizes. You can find all of my predictions in the VIP section where you can go head-to-head with all of our station’s “VIP” picks.

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