ROCHESTER, N.Y. (WROC) — What do the Bills and I have in common? We were both winners in the Wild Card round.
The Bills of course won 27-24 over the Colts to move on, while I went 3-2-1 on my Bills Bets.
Also in common, Allen and Diggs both led us to victory. They both cashed on their overs.
Jonathan Taylor did not do me any favors. The line I posted was 77.5 and of course, Taylor went for 78, ruining my under. Though some people (me) may have gotten that line at 80 and cashed in on my logic.
Time to turn our attention to the Ravens. As always, these lines are the consensus lines on the Action Network at time of publication.
Let’s keep the good times rolling…
Ravens (+2.5) at Bills
Note: This game is creeping up to Ravens +3. Wait until the last possible minute to try and get that extra half point. If it gets to +3 that’s what my bet will be.
I know, I know. I’m not betting on the Bills. This hasn’t really worked out for me in the past.
But I really feel this game is going to be a toss-up. Those points could come in handy.
The Ravens have won seven straight against the spread. The Bills are 8-1 against the spread in their last 9. They’re both feeling pretty good about themselves.
If you need a reason to take Baltimore, Lamar Jackson is 4-1 against the spread the last five times he’s been a road underdog. The Ravens are also 5-0 against the spread their last five times as an underdog.
Both played similar games last week— tight for the most part, not playing quite up to their potential, but not disappointing either.
This could be a good emotional hedge for you. I’ll say the Bills move on with a close one, 24-23.
Lamar Jackson over 75.5 rushing yards
I don’t really have a good feel for this game, so I’m making sure all of my prop bets are game script-proof in my eyes.
What does that mean? Basically, no matter how the game goes (a close game, lopsided for the Bills, lopsided for the Ravens), I think these bets will cash.
Let’s start with my favorite one, the reigning MVP’s over.
When the Ravens really need a win, they let Lamar run loose. In his three career playoff games, he’s averaging 111 yards on the ground. Since coming back from the COVID list, where they needed to basically win out to make the playoffs, he’s averaged 95 yards a game.
The Bills held him to his second-fewest rushing total in 2019, but I think they won’t be able to contain him as much this time around.
Devin Singletary Under 45.5 rushing yards
I know what you’re thinking. With Zack Moss out, a workhorse running back can’t even get to 46 yards?
Well last week, the workhorse was Josh Allen. He had 11 carries to 10 combined for both tailbacks.
I also think T.J. Yeldon will get a decent amount of the work. Not as much Moss would, but probably more of a 70/30 split compared to the 90/10 you could expect.
Stefon Diggs over 93.5 receiving yards
He’s averaging 106 yards over his last 10 games. I don’t really care what cornerback is defending him. Allen will get the ball to his stud receiver.
No points scored in the first six minutes
Last week I cashed out on my “under longest touchdown bet” so here’s my other one out of left field.
Both teams have been slow starters all season long. The Bills have scored only three times in the first six minutes of their games this year. The Ravens have scored a touchdown on their first drive just four times this year. Even if they score early, with their ground attack six minutes can roll off the clock pretty easily.
There have been no points in Bills’ games 11 of their 17 games this year. It’s 12 of 17 for the Ravens. Put them together and this is a bet that is 23-11 on the season.
Wild Card Bills Bets: 3-2-1
Season overall record: 52-54-6
Bills Bets: 15-8-1
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