LOUDONVILLE, N.Y. (WTEN) — According to a new Siena College poll released Tuesday, Governor Kathy Hochul is the clear favorite among New York Democrats five months before the primary, leading potential primary opponents by more than 30 points.
She has garnered the support of nearly 46% of democrats, compared to 12% for former New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, 11% for New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams, and 6% for Rep. Tom Suozzi, with 24% unsure or naming another candidate.
“James is out of the race. Williams and Suozzi are unknown to half of Democrats. A potential opponent,
de Blasio, is viewed unfavorably by more Democrats than view him favorably. With 22 weeks until the primary, it appears Hochul is in the catbird seat to be the Democratic nominee for governor,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg.
Hochul approaches support from nearly half of Democrats, 46%, up from 36% last month – before James, who had the support of 18%, exited the race.
DeBlasio appears to have picked up some James supporters as well, now at 12%, up from 6% in December.
When asked to look to the future, poll participants found it quite unlikely the United States will stay a democratic republic in 2030 despite current partisan divisions- the most common response being “somewhat likely” at 38%. Another 29% said it was very likely, 17% say not very likely, and 5% say not likely at all.
“New Yorkers are not overly optimistic about our nation’s future as the world’s oldest continuing democracy. Only one in three Democrats and one in four Republicans and independents thinks it very likely that the United States will still be a democratic republic in 2030,” Greenberg said. “One-third of Republicans, one-quarter of independents and 17% of Democrats don’t think it very or at all likely that the republic as we know it will continue. New York City voters are more optimistic than the rest of the state; men more optimistic than women.”
Voters also support, 63% to 27%, requiring Former President Trump to testify in the civil investigation into potential fraud in the Trump Administration being conducted by Attorney General Letitia James. “With a clear partisan divide, New Yorkers strongly support requiring Trump to testify in the James civil investigation into the Trump Organization. Eighty-one percent of Democrats and 51% of independents say Trump should be required to testify, and while Republicans say Trump should not be required to testify, they do so by only a 47% to 40% margin,” Greenberg said. “At least 55% of voters from every region, race, gender, age group, and income level support compelling Trump to testify in the investigation.”
Also examined in the Siena Poll was public response to Governor Hochul’s State of the State proposals. Eight of the outlined plans have received strong to overwhelming support by constituents:
As is evident in the above table, and as Greenberg concludes, voters support eight Hochul proposals from her first state of the state address by margins of between 21 and 65 points. Five of the proposals – helping those currently and formerly incarcerated with job skills and employment, implementing term limits for the statewide offices, providing wages and bonuses for healthcare workers, adding an Equal Rights Amendment to the State Constitution, and banning most outside income for statewide elected officials – have strong bipartisan support.
Voters are mostly divided on whether or not Governor Hochul will make progress towards achieving her originally outlined goals:
“Democrats are optimistic Hochul’s administration will make progress in achieving five of the goals she laid out earlier this year. Republicans largely think she will not make progress. Independents also don’t think she’ll make progress but they’re not as pessimistic about it as Republicans,” Greenberg said. “Overall, Hochul has work to do in convincing New Yorkers that she will make progress on these issues. Time will tell.”
This Siena College Poll was conducted January 9-13, 2022 among 806 New York State registered voters with 406 voters contacted through a dual frame (landline and cell phone) mode and 400 responses drawn from a proprietary online panel (Lucid) of New Yorkers. Telephone calls were conducted in English and respondent sampling was initiated by asking for the youngest person in the household. Telephone sampling was conducted via a stratified dual frame probability sample of landline (ASDE) and cell phone (Dynata) telephone numbers within New York State weighted to reflect known population patterns. Data from both collection modes (phone and web) was merged and statistically adjusted by age, party by region, race/ethnicity, education, and gender to ensure representativeness.
The poll has an overall margin of error of 4.0 percentage points including the design effects resulting from weighting. There were 417 Democrats, with a margin of error of 5.4 percentage points including the design effect resulting from weighting.
The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social, and cultural research primarily in NYS. SCRI, an independent, non -partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, call Steve Greenberg at (518) 469-9858.