ROCHESTER, N.Y. (WROC) — Hurricane Ian officially made landfall as a major category 4 hurricane on the west coast of Florida early Wednesday afternoon. Storm surge, catastrophic winds, and flooding rains are just the main impacts that will be felt by many as a result of this dangerous storm.
The main takeaway here is that this storm still has a long road ahead. Once Hurricane Ian gets its legs on land the storm should technically begin to weaken some. Although with storms of this strength it may take a little while before that actually happens.
It’s likely that once Ian moves over Florida and back over the warm, Atlantic ocean waters that it maintains strength as a tropical storm after weakening, and eventually heads toward places like Georgia and the Carolinas by the end of the week.
The question then becomes, will Western New York feel any effects from this tropical system?
The answer to that is no, due to an area of high pressure that will serve to block the storm and moisture from reaching us. We’re likely to see some of the “blow-off” cirrus clouds from the decaying area of low pressure, but that’s about as exciting as it gets for us.
Both the strength and position of this incoming high pressure are playing a huge role in this. Just for fun, let’s say that this area of high pressure about to be centered over us in the next few days was a little bit weaker. This would allow better odds that moisture from the approaching low pressure would get into Western New York in the form of rain to some extent.
The second scenario that could play out is that this area of high pressure could be centered more to the east, for example over the northern Atlantic ocean. This would allow for a “slingshot” effect between the high and the low as clockwise wind flow from the high directs the low right at us.
With all that said, it seems that the odds are increasingly in our favor due to current forecasts and model trajectories that Western New York will be safe from the effects of this storm even as it decays.