TAMPA, Fla. (COVERS) — In an NFL season constantly clouded by COVID, we’re down to two teams — with Super Bowl odds on the board and getting immediate attention. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers toppled Green Bay in Sunday’s NFC Championship Game, while the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs had little trouble with Buffalo in the AFC Championship Game.
The SuperBook’s John Murray provided insights on Super Bowl 55 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting. Covers will update this report with NFL sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement throughout the next two weeks.
Super Bowl 55 Betting Line
Tampa Bay won three straight road playoff games to reach the Super Bowl, capped by Sunday’s 31-26 victory over Green Bay in the NFC Championship Game. Kansas City booked a return trip to the Big Game by dispatching Buffalo 38-24 in the AFC Championship Game.
Sunday night brought some quick action on the Super Bowl point spread, total and moneyline, with all three seeing some movement.
The Buccaneers are the first team to have home-field advantage in the Super Bowl, but The SuperBook opened Tom Brady and Co. as 3.5-point underdogs, nonetheless. Perhaps surprisingly, the first move was to Chiefs -3 (-120).
That move occurred because, for the third straight week, respected bettors hit Tampa Bay early.
“A lot of sharp guys were taking Buccaneers +3.5. They think the market is gonna tighten and the spread is gonna come down,” Murray said Sunday night. “Money came in on the Bucs right away the last two weeks, and it was right. I don’t know how the Buccaneers keep doing this. But at some point, you just have to take your hat off to them. To win at New Orleans and at Green Bay in back-to-back weeks is unbelievable.”
|Team||Spread (as of January 24)||Opening Spread|
|Kansas City Chiefs||-3 (-120)||-3.5 (-110)|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+3 (Even)||+3.5 (-110)|
Odds courtesy of the SuperBook
The SuperBook opened the total at 57, and bettors pushed it up to 57.5 fairly quickly, banking on a boatload of points when Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady collide for the Lombardi Trophy. But per usual, the early action Sunday night was primarily sharp play, ultimately pushing the total down.
“Wiseguys bet it under. And on the Super Bowl, we always open the total a little inflated,” Murray said. “A guy I really respect played Under 57, so we’re now down to 56.5. I expect it to go back up, but not soon. Right now, only the sharp guys are betting the Super Bowl. The public won’t really get involved until Thursday of Super Bowl week.”
The Super Bowl moneyline effectively replaces the seasonlong Super Bowl futures book. The Chiefs opened -180 to the Bucs’ +160, and the first move on the moneyline was actually toward underdog Tampa Bay, as the price adjusted to Chiefs -170/Bucs +150.
“We had a few guys take Bucs +160,” Murray said, noting that it was again respected action. “One thing we always get with the Super Bowl is betting the ‘dog on the moneyline. Then the price tightens, and wiseguys at the very end take the favorite on the moneyline.”
In the futures market, there’s no question which team The SuperBook is rooting for come Feb. 7 in Tampa, Fla.
“We lose on Tampa Bay,” Murray said. “We did a good job this last week, though. We were a huge loser to Tampa Bay, but we wrote some money to the other three teams. We’re still a big loser to the Bucs, but it’s much easier to stomach.”