ROCHESTER, N.Y. (WROC) — The colder air on the horizon means more people are turning on the heat, and with that comes concern over a higher energy bill.

Earlier this month, a supply chain expert told News 8 that by looking at the service industry –
and said that energy prices could be up 35-40% in the coming quarter.

However, RG&E and NYSEG shared some data with me saying the projected cost for RG&E customers is a 12% decrease in their natural gas bill compared to last winter.

Patrick Fox is the Senior Director of New York Energy Services Department, and he’s in charge of buying energy commodities for RG&E and NYSEG.

Commodities are power sources like electricity and natural gas, which is what most people use to heat their homes.

He says the reason for this projected decrease in the bill is because of much lower commodity costs, driven in part by the evolving situation in Ukraine, and improved reserves in the US.

“So we’re expecting our gas numbers in our RG&E service territory, to see commodity prices about 35% lower than they were last winter,” he said. “Now that’s a forecast, but certainly if we have normal winter weather, which we plan for, we’re expecting to see natural gas fall off pretty significantly on the commodity side.”

He adds that delivery and service costs are the difference in why the bill is projected to be down 12% and not 35%. Fox adds that electric costs — much of our area’s electricity is generated by natural gas — are expected to be down about 10%.

Fox says that a lot of these collated numbers will be part of the Department of Public Service session in October.