Last summer was a hot one! What will this one be like?
Last year we had 22 days that were 90° or hotter, two heat waves in July alone, and below average rainfall.
When forecasting months into the future, like the summer outlook, there are a few factors meteorologists can look at, like whether or not we’re in an El Nino. This means the sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are warmer than average, and this can change up the typical track of the jet stream, depending on the strength.
We ARE in an El Nino now, but there are questions as to whether it’ll last all summer, and how strong it will be. In addition to that, it’s not always reliable. With that, here’s what we’re thinking about this year’s summer.
We’re thinking it’ll be generally average or slightly above average for temperatures. 90 degree days may be about average, or just slightly above, but nowhere near last year. It may be a wetter than average summer in terms of rainfall. A warm Atlantic may feed extra moisture into the Northeast, adding to the seasonal rainfall. This added moisture in the air may also keep night time temperatures up slightly.
With all this being said, forecast long range forecasts is challenging, and can sometimes be way off. So, keep it here, and we’ll keep you updated on the week to week forecasts this summer for all your warm weather plans!